hzds

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.774k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
86.635	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
81.104	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
80.021	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
77.609	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
74.961	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?	Continuous
73.799	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
73.689	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
68.800	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
68.314	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
68.042	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
53.713	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
53.569	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
51.090	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
50.144	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
48.184	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
46.831	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
45.234	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
45.028	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
44.350	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
42.945	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
42.753	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
40.183	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
39.449	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
39.210	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
33.108	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
33.079	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
29.556	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
29.069	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
28.850	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
26.600	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
24.695	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
24.684	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
22.635	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
21.725	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
21.556	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
21.238	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
20.643	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
19.864	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
19.847	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
19.362	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
18.893	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
18.851	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
18.814	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
17.076	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
15.411	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
15.308	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
13.583	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
13.220	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
12.573	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
12.053	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
11.613	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
11.578	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
11.209	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
10.607	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
10.318	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
9.851	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
9.052	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
8.294	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
8.205	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
8.084	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
7.984	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
6.634	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
6.519	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
6.270	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
4.829	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
4.262	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
4.149	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
3.798	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
3.697	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
3.691	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
3.489	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
3.448	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
3.445	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
2.999	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
2.646	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
2.423	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
1.621	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
1.224	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
1.072	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
0.838	What percent of ArXiv AI publications in the calendar year 2019 will be in the subcategory “Computation and Language”?	Continuous
0.572	How many AI papers will be published on ArXiv in the calendar year 2019?	Continuous
0.525	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
0.327	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
0.315	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
0.100	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
0.052	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
0.019	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
0.012	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-0.137	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-0.714	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-1.146	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-4.096	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-5.758	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-6.925	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-8.174	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-11.312	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-11.884	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-12.821	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-14.673	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-20.098	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-21.897	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-32.578	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-36.863	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-65.294	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-95.197	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary