AlexRay

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.024k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
67.603	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
63.886	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
63.389	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
59.666	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
59.359	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
53.323	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
51.234	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
48.876	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
40.777	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
39.255	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
35.160	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
31.881	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
29.257	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
26.546	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
24.575	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
22.695	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
20.132	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
19.954	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
18.089	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
18.001	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
16.938	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
15.700	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
15.663	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
14.991	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
14.208	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
13.755	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
13.676	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
13.403	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
13.361	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
12.150	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
11.681	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
11.599	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
11.534	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
10.060	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
9.366	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
9.286	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
8.951	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
8.646	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
7.899	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
7.799	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
7.678	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
7.144	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
7.138	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
6.768	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
6.182	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
5.687	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
5.296	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
4.801	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
3.686	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
3.439	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
3.279	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
3.253	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
3.184	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
2.782	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
2.487	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
2.281	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
2.133	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
1.561	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
-	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-0.133	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-0.652	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-0.802	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-8.755	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-11.566	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-13.779	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-14.668	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-38.498	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary