englisc aspyrgend

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.865k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.398	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
93.076	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
84.773	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
70.619	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
57.559	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
52.790	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
52.751	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
52.656	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
50.677	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
49.943	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
49.767	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
49.207	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
48.466	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
48.125	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
45.823	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
43.011	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
42.235	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
40.864	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
40.568	By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?	Binary
38.536	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
37.549	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
37.007	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
34.091	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
32.480	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
32.303	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
31.942	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
31.477	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
30.920	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
29.832	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
28.935	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
28.789	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
28.540	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
28.323	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
28.316	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
27.999	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
27.843	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
27.292	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
26.573	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
25.495	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
24.968	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
24.814	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
23.685	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
23.234	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
23.135	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
22.222	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
21.663	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
21.355	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
20.984	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
19.930	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
19.278	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
18.714	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
18.652	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
18.461	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
17.881	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
17.626	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
17.372	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
16.305	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
16.183	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
16.144	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
16.105	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
16.034	Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?	Binary
15.927	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
15.786	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
15.679	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
15.663	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
14.240	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
13.312	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
13.180	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
13.154	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
13.144	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
12.947	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
11.138	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
11.072	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
11.005	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
9.958	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
8.879	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
8.363	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
8.301	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
7.900	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
7.020	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
6.964	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
5.417	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
5.178	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
5.062	Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?	Binary
4.649	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
3.273	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
3.176	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
3.149	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
2.977	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
2.910	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
2.812	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
2.427	Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?	Binary
2.403	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?	Binary
2.330	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
2.132	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
1.138	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
0.454	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
0.317	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
0.231	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
0.054	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
0.047	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
0.000	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
-	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
-	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-0.123	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
-1.904	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-2.904	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-4.453	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-5.152	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-5.464	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-5.848	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
-8.530	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-10.810	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-11.152	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-11.810	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
-11.817	Airships by 2019?	Binary
-12.024	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-12.525	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-16.147	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
-19.152	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-23.191	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-23.640	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-24.939	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-25.012	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-25.140	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-25.321	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-36.003	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-75.941	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-138.720	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary