Pablo

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6069	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
154.577	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
144.850	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
133.374	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
126.706	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
120.358	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
118.086	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	Continuous
117.304	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
98.474	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
97.002	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
96.987	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
94.178	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.060	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
93.872	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
93.365	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
92.494	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
91.828	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
91.619	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
91.551	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
91.445	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
91.425	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
90.792	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
90.624	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
90.417	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
86.864	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
86.188	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
85.354	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
84.735	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	Continuous
84.663	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
84.636	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
84.466	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
84.186	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
82.941	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
81.864	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
81.530	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
81.244	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	Binary
80.959	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
80.957	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
80.689	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
79.895	Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?	Continuous
79.178	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
79.041	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
77.554	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
77.271	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
77.157	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
76.874	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
75.306	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
75.156	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	Continuous
75.151	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
74.827	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
74.651	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
74.051	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
73.844	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
73.602	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
73.451	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
72.915	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
72.257	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
72.013	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
70.262	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
69.510	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
69.299	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
68.849	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
67.789	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
67.533	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
67.222	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
66.834	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
66.649	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
66.215	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
66.145	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
65.329	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
63.945	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
63.646	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
63.542	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
62.418	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
62.160	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
62.073	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
60.209	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
59.911	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
58.812	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
57.677	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
56.154	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
55.548	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous
54.242	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
53.952	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
52.145	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
52.098	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
50.919	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
50.652	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
50.366	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
49.918	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	Continuous
49.560	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
49.313	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
49.011	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
48.425	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
48.333	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
47.159	LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?	Continuous
47.031	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
46.325	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
45.725	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
45.720	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
45.095	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
44.951	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
44.741	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
44.679	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
43.476	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
42.180	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
41.983	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	Continuous
41.695	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
41.396	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
39.986	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
39.758	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
39.536	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
38.850	Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?	Binary
38.057	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
38.007	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
37.850	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
37.774	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
37.149	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
36.256	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
35.624	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
35.179	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
34.468	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	Continuous
33.926	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
33.483	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
33.028	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
32.635	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
31.093	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
30.582	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
30.535	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	Continuous
30.458	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
30.428	Will the community prediction do better than the Metaculus prediction for the 2nd instalment of the Lightning round?	Binary
30.078	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
30.032	How much less global warming if the US resumes participation in the Paris Agreement?	Continuous
29.692	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
28.305	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
27.306	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
26.283	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
25.486	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
24.907	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
24.772	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
24.556	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
24.547	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
24.468	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
24.252	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
23.385	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
23.078	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	Continuous
22.517	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
21.126	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
20.095	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
19.840	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
19.247	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
19.132	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
18.003	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
16.591	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
15.617	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
15.448	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
14.128	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
13.885	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
13.658	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
12.840	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
11.933	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
10.789	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
10.363	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
10.261	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
9.891	When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?	Continuous
9.854	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
9.302	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
8.797	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
8.196	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
7.867	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
5.940	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
5.085	What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?	Continuous
4.354	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
3.664	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
3.600	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
3.040	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
2.855	Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?	Binary
2.495	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
2.454	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
1.763	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
0.766	When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?	Continuous
-0.273	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-0.326	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-0.488	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
-0.799	When will programs write programs for us?	Continuous
-1.351	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
-2.879	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
-3.278	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-4.662	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	Continuous
-5.733	In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?	Continuous
-6.288	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-8.725	Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?	Binary
-8.807	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?	Binary
-12.093	By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?	Binary
-12.951	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
-13.456	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-15.200	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
-15.822	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	Binary
-16.041	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
-16.070	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-16.171	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-20.707	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
-23.623	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-25.123	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-26.502	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
-26.746	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
-28.773	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-30.156	When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?	Continuous
-31.717	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
-31.905	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
-32.139	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
-32.757	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
-33.306	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-34.001	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-39.741	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
-42.205	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-43.100	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
-44.081	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	Binary
-46.215	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-51.471	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
-55.577	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-55.581	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
-61.315	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
-81.038	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
-82.248	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-91.119	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
-98.028	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-100.500	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-120.793	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-125.309	If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?	Continuous
-130.615	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous
-131.958	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
-138.893	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
-157.769	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-184.867	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
-227.659	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous
-230.237	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-251.010	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-251.759	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary