Pablo

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.142k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.593	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
89.521	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
87.846	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
83.029	[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?	Binary
80.381	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
78.601	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
76.525	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
72.169	If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?	Binary
69.009	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
69.005	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
68.500	How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?	Continuous
68.108	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
67.300	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
65.710	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
63.935	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
60.733	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
60.585	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
60.243	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
59.959	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
53.578	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
52.852	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
52.071	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
51.875	If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?	Continuous
51.426	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
51.221	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
51.017	How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)?	Continuous
49.257	Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?	Binary
49.090	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
49.012	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
45.492	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
45.373	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
45.228	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
42.075	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
40.606	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
39.941	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
39.837	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
39.109	Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate?	Binary
38.387	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
38.080	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
36.814	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
36.407	Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?	Binary
31.988	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
30.860	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
29.937	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
22.863	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
18.871	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
17.206	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
15.605	Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?	Binary
15.311	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
14.456	[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?	Binary
13.990	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
13.455	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
11.986	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
11.667	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
11.307	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
10.002	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
7.702	What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice?	Continuous
7.489	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
7.253	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
3.823	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
3.756	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
2.256	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
1.354	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
0.947	If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate?	Continuous
0.900	How many main characters will survive Game of Thrones?	Continuous
0.464	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
-0.820	When will Steven Universe: The Movie be released?	Continuous
-7.140	How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend?	Continuous
-8.483	[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?	Binary
-10.116	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
-10.612	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-20.683	[Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd?	Continuous
-22.472	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
-34.234	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
-40.947	Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019?	Binary
-78.570	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-89.223	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
-94.009	Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?	Continuous
-123.865	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary