Uncle Jeff

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

626.1	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.040	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
77.738	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
73.067	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
66.288	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
65.869	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
61.350	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
59.735	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
56.034	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
54.848	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
50.531	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
50.476	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
45.535	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
45.086	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
41.264	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
40.016	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
37.867	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
37.707	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
37.284	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
32.272	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
30.595	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
25.713	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
20.161	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
17.589	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
12.069	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
10.916	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
9.955	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
9.525	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
7.927	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
2.904	Airships by 2019?	Binary
2.424	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
1.342	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.120	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
1.107	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
0.179	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
0.057	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
0.017	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
-	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
-1.183	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-1.665	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
-2.683	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-3.248	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-3.556	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-5.315	By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?	Binary
-7.968	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-17.091	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-35.777	Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?	Binary
-38.368	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-50.054	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-55.608	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-61.169	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-116.987	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
-172.811	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary