AngraMainyu

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.268k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.506	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
101.352	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
98.456	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
96.972	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
94.573	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
93.821	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
92.789	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
89.418	If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?	Binary
84.246	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
83.621	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
83.295	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
82.258	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
80.174	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
79.809	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
79.656	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
78.175	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
76.566	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
76.461	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
75.590	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
73.909	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
71.707	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
70.422	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
68.267	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
67.879	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
67.340	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
66.402	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
66.400	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
66.392	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
66.182	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
65.689	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
63.891	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
63.804	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed?	Binary
62.461	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
60.927	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
58.324	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
57.214	Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?	Binary
48.304	If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?	Continuous
47.793	How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?	Continuous
47.554	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
44.788	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
42.777	[Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak?	Binary
42.426	Falcon Heavy booster landing redux: How many boosters will Falcon Heavy Flight 2 land successfully?	Continuous
37.035	Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?	Binary
34.049	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
33.429	Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020?	Binary
33.132	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
31.225	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
30.206	What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice?	Continuous
29.460	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
29.075	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
28.754	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
28.483	Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate?	Binary
25.393	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit?	Binary
25.195	How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend?	Continuous
22.785	Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election?	Binary
13.125	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
11.310	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
10.030	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
6.162	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
0.898	[Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019?	Binary
-	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-1.706	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
-7.752	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
-14.866	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
-37.785	[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?	Binary
-72.934	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
-76.266	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
-88.740	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-93.985	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
-126.532	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-173.047	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
-219.316	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
-294.741	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary