122.719 | How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election? | Continuous |
120.146 | How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term? | Continuous |
96.869 | How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election? | Continuous |
92.283 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020? | Binary |
89.520 | Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019? | Binary |
83.320 | What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired? | Continuous |
82.767 | Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020? | Binary |
82.604 | Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020? | Binary |
77.423 | Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019? | Binary |
73.889 | Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019? | Binary |
73.866 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019? | Binary |
73.741 | How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election? | Continuous |
71.258 | Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019? | Binary |
70.254 | Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election? | Binary |
69.920 | How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election? | Continuous |
67.492 | Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019? | Binary |
67.431 | Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019? | Binary |
67.101 | Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019? | Binary |
66.577 | Will US troops intervene in Venezuela? | Binary |
65.896 | By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players? | Binary |
62.576 | Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019? | Binary |
61.355 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019? | Binary |
58.739 | Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019? | Binary |
58.099 | Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019? | Binary |
56.658 | Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019? | Binary |
56.575 | Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019? | Binary |
54.225 | Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020? | Binary |
52.731 | Will Nabil Karoui win the popular vote on the first round of the September 2019 Tunisian Election? | Binary |
52.731 | Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded? | Binary |
52.203 | How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)? | Continuous |
51.677 | Will the US government shut down on February 16th? | Binary |
50.731 | If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote? | Binary |
49.434 | Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019? | Binary |
49.095 | Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government? | Binary |
47.854 | Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident? | Binary |
47.736 | Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020? | Binary |
47.666 | Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher? | Binary |
46.903 | British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020? | Binary |
45.382 | Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019? | Binary |
42.135 | Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift? | Binary |
42.049 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted? | Binary |
41.886 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018 | Binary |
39.374 | Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019? | Binary |
39.043 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed? | Binary |
36.924 | Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament? | Binary |
36.043 | How many homicides will there be in London in 2019? | Continuous |
34.712 | How many main characters will survive Game of Thrones? | Continuous |
32.528 | Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019? | Binary |
32.086 | Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500? | Binary |
30.218 | [Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019? | Binary |
29.807 | Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019? | Continuous |
28.860 | Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th? | Binary |
28.792 | Falcon Heavy booster landing redux: How many boosters will Falcon Heavy Flight 2 land successfully? | Continuous |
26.549 | How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary? | Continuous |
26.484 | How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend? | Continuous |
26.414 | What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans? | Continuous |
26.016 | Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020? | Binary |
22.614 | Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election? | Binary |
22.358 | If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win? | Continuous |
20.080 | Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG? | Binary |
19.315 | Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019? | Binary |
18.870 | [Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd? | Continuous |
16.185 | When will Astralis stop being the number one ranked CS:GO team? | Continuous |
15.330 | [Short Fuse] During the 7 days starting August 7th 2019, will the Google search volume for "Hong Kong protest" spike to at least 25% of its all time peak? | Binary |
15.170 | Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate? | Binary |
11.572 | Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children? | Binary |
8.407 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety? | Binary |
6.328 | [Short Fuse] Will more than 10% of flights departing from Hong Kong Intl. Airport be cancelled on the 16th of August 2019? | Binary |
4.080 | Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine? | Binary |
3.994 | Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives? | Binary |
3.181 | What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice? | Continuous |
0.415 | When will Steven Universe: The Movie be released? | Continuous |
- | Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019? | Binary |
- | Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020? | Binary |
- | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019 | Binary |
-3.222 | Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers? | Binary |
-5.388 | Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania? | Binary |
-14.493 | Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline? | Binary |
-18.036 | Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019? | Binary |
-25.657 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit? | Binary |
-27.804 | Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020? | Binary |
-31.728 | Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019? | Binary |
-31.996 | Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000? | Binary |
-32.172 | Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020? | Binary |
-45.695 | When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
-48.071 | Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019? | Binary |
-60.363 | If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate? | Continuous |
-106.857 | Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019? | Binary |