| 129.616 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 109.053 | Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize? | Continuous |
| 107.198 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 97.946 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? (No) → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 97.032 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026? | Binary |
| 94.783 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 94.747 | Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026? | Binary |
| 94.030 | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 93.273 | How many US states will have a kindergarten measles vaccination rate below 90% for the 2024-2025 school year? | Continuous |
| 92.328 | Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 92.313 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2024-2025 season? | Continuous |
| 90.589 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Cohere) | Binary |
| 90.589 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face) | Binary |
| 90.589 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Alibaba) | Binary |
| 88.101 | Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI? | Binary |
| 88.003 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai) | Binary |
| 87.964 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Republicans Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 87.665 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (AI21) | Binary |
| 87.665 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Baidu) | Binary |
| 87.665 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (IBM) | Binary |
| 87.383 | Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? | Binary |
| 86.224 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 83.563 | What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 83.015 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Apple) | Binary |
| 82.521 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 82.511 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Binary |
| 82.276 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (January 18, 2025) | Continuous |
| 81.626 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (xAI) | Binary |
| 81.407 | Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Barack Obama) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Alvin Bragg (Manhattan DA)) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Jack Smith (special counsel)) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Juan Merchan (New York judge)) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Arthur Engoron (New York judge)) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Letitia James (New York attorney general)) | Binary |
| 80.310 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Stephanie Clifford (AKA Stormy Daniels)) | Binary |
| 78.817 | Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026? | Binary |
| 78.481 | What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US? (Children 6 months to 17 years) | Continuous |
| 78.153 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 75.854 | Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? | Binary |
| 75.353 | Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026? | Binary |
| 74.914 | Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025? | Binary |
| 74.533 | Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | Binary |
| 74.246 | What will be the flu vaccine coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US? (Children 6 months to 17 years) | Continuous |
| 73.741 | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (OpenAI / GPT-5) | Binary |
| 73.675 | Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 73.305 | Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 73.054 | Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 71.689 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Michael Cohen (former Trump lawyer)) | Binary |
| 71.092 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Perplexity AI) | Binary |
| 70.965 | Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors? | Binary |
| 70.815 | Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months? | Binary |
| 70.750 | Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026? | Binary |
| 70.420 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Mistral AI) | Binary |
| 70.218 | How many pounds of chicken per capita will the US consume in 2025? | Continuous |
| 68.081 | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026? | Binary |
| 66.852 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? | Binary |
| 66.674 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (February 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| 66.223 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 66.075 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 65.688 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 65.270 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta) | Binary |
| 62.385 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 61.316 | What will be the average vaccination rate in US counties that report at least five measles cases in 2024? | Continuous |
| 61.054 | Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? | Binary |
| 60.138 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 60.044 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 58.880 | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 18, 2025) | Continuous |
| 58.785 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| 58.681 | Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 58.491 | Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 57.295 | Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025? | Binary |
| 56.394 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 56.236 | Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024? | Binary |
| 54.104 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft) | Binary |
| 54.014 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 54.010 | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025? | Binary |
| 53.056 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 51.815 | Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025? | Binary |
| 50.855 | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? | Binary |
| 50.855 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025? | Binary |
| 50.160 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 49.725 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 49.423 | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H1N1) | Continuous |
| 49.072 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 48.938 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 48.923 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Leicester) | Continuous |
| 48.608 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 48.543 | On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? | Binary |
| 48.426 | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2025) | Continuous |
| 48.350 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 48.261 | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H3N2) | Continuous |
| 47.227 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.169 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025) | Binary |
| 44.449 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 43.925 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 42.763 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 41.007 | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? | Binary |
| 40.813 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 40.813 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 40.394 | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? | Binary |
| 39.672 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 39.442 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 39.009 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.685 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 36.369 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Club Brugge) | Binary |
| 36.002 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 35.953 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Ipswich) | Continuous |
| 35.898 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 35.894 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Lille OSC) | Binary |
| 35.894 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (PSV Eindhoven) | Binary |
| 35.360 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atlético Madrid) | Binary |
| 34.470 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayer Leverkusen) | Binary |
| 34.296 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 32.721 | Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II? | Binary |
| 32.626 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 32.326 | Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 29.812 | Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases? | Binary |
| 28.080 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Stade Brest) | Binary |
| 28.080 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 28.076 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Juventus) | Binary |
| 27.713 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 27.713 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sporting Lisbon) | Binary |
| 27.301 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (AS Monaco) | Binary |
| 26.465 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atalanta) | Binary |
| 26.149 | Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| 23.846 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 21.779 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 20.769 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sturm Graz) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bologna) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Girona) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Slovan Bratislava) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Red Star Belgrade) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Sparta Praha) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 20.738 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Dinamo Zagreb) | Binary |
| 20.678 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (VfD Stuttgart) | Binary |
| 19.777 | How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 19.507 | When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US? | Continuous |
| 16.410 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (December 2024) | Continuous |
| 16.226 | When will GPT-5 be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 15.842 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (3,000) | Binary |
| 14.857 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 12.779 | Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025? | Binary |
| 12.119 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 8.577 | Will Ju Wenjun win the Women's World Chess Championship 2025? | Binary |
| 7.786 | Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.392 | What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2024-25 season be among the following groups in the US? (Eligible pregnant persons) | Continuous |
| 6.949 | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (February 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| 6.925 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Democrats Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 3.555 | What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2024-25 season be among the following groups in the US? (Infants < 8 months) | Continuous |
| 0.599 | What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the end of April 2025? | Continuous |
| - | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus) | Binary |
| - | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100) | Binary |
| -0.199 | Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026? | Binary |
| -3.053 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| -3.958 | Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza? | Binary |
| -6.778 | Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023? | Binary |
| -9.114 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | Continuous |
| -10.795 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 18, 2025) | Continuous |
| -11.769 | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H5) | Continuous |
| -13.575 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| -22.382 | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025? (No) → How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| -24.297 | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? | Binary |
| -28.695 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| -30.247 | Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? | Binary |
| -32.527 | What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season? | Continuous |
| -34.709 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (1,000) | Binary |
| -66.467 | Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025? | Binary |
| -68.089 | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -80.785 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026? | Binary |
| -98.086 | Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024? | Binary |
| -109.188 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Amazon) | Binary |
| -113.342 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (February 1, 2025) | Continuous |
| -129.179 | Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025? | Binary |
| -150.430 | Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? | Binary |
| -164.373 | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| -221.107 | Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025? | Binary |
| -236.999 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |