lifi

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

955.8	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
103.343	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
71.065	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
69.584	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
67.236	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
56.512	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
52.464	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
50.657	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
49.502	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
48.611	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
47.521	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
47.317	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
38.500	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
33.898	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
33.865	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
33.257	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
31.911	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
31.494	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
28.006	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
25.900	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
24.554	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
22.002	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
21.543	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
21.097	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
18.611	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
17.235	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
16.676	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
15.023	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
13.135	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
12.180	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
11.955	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
11.308	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
10.658	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
9.674	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
9.460	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
9.040	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
7.658	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
7.090	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
5.569	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
4.768	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
3.932	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
3.406	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
2.941	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
2.851	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
2.593	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
2.492	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
2.242	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
1.226	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
0.688	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
0.447	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
0.372	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
0.237	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
0.213	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.186	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
-	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
-0.036	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-0.168	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-0.791	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-1.167	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-2.189	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-5.859	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
-7.147	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-9.470	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-16.793	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-18.337	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
-31.432	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-32.910	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-39.788	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-40.931	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-50.924	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary