DanielG

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.193k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.531	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
98.484	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
98.475	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
98.330	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
97.846	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
97.508	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
97.238	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
96.793	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
96.326	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
93.684	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
91.823	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
91.679	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
82.992	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
80.660	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
66.342	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
65.256	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
63.697	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
62.941	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
56.677	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
52.495	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
52.389	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
48.416	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
46.073	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
39.526	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
39.518	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
35.973	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
32.057	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
29.736	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
28.533	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
27.498	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
26.300	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
19.489	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
17.982	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
17.295	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
15.798	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
12.273	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
8.896	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
8.191	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
7.240	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
5.721	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
5.545	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
5.428	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
4.434	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
3.786	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
3.284	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
1.785	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
1.577	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
1.383	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.790	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
0.591	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-5.076	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-5.549	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-29.161	How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?	Continuous
-35.058	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-36.861	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
-38.523	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-44.605	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
-97.776	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
-268.623	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-480.756	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary