Zweihander

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7531	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
182.964	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
177.759	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
165.338	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
158.572	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
157.353	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
125.483	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
119.475	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
116.577	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (May 14)	Continuous
114.892	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
110.597	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
109.301	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022?	Continuous
99.645	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30)	Continuous
99.120	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
98.866	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
98.530	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
97.093	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (May 14)	Continuous
95.244	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
94.978	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
93.940	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
92.643	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
90.230	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
90.196	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
90.174	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
89.473	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
88.202	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
87.574	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
87.090	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
86.095	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
85.890	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
85.379	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
83.299	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
83.295	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
82.486	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
82.335	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
81.252	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (May 14)	Continuous
79.510	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
78.548	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30)	Continuous
78.474	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
78.151	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
78.028	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
78.017	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
76.678	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
76.614	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
76.136	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
75.340	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
74.810	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
74.475	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
73.697	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
73.112	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
71.945	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
71.936	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
71.592	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
71.163	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
71.059	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
71.018	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
70.992	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
70.355	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
70.353	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
69.860	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
69.558	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
69.100	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
68.980	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
68.015	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
67.381	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
67.137	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
66.103	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
65.631	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
63.835	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
63.479	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
63.200	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
63.131	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
62.753	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
62.706	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
62.313	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
61.352	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
60.886	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
60.591	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
60.295	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
60.103	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
59.184	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
58.924	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
58.719	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
58.603	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
58.299	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
58.004	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
57.736	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
57.332	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
56.937	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
56.638	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
56.561	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
56.445	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.150	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
55.471	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
55.394	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
54.517	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
54.465	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
53.841	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
53.612	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
53.395	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
52.517	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
51.897	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
50.978	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
50.232	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
49.395	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
48.670	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
48.425	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
48.423	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
48.172	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
48.151	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
47.910	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
47.630	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
47.086	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
46.688	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
46.223	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
46.139	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
45.729	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
45.499	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
45.338	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
44.805	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
44.803	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
44.647	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
44.239	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
44.112	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
43.228	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
43.017	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
42.434	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
42.172	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
41.901	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
41.834	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
41.703	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
41.425	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30)	Continuous
41.081	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
40.597	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
40.400	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
40.148	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
39.822	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
39.598	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
39.561	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
39.521	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
38.842	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
38.770	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
37.885	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
37.676	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
36.659	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
36.386	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
35.793	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
35.010	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
34.481	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
34.079	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
32.875	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
32.755	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
32.564	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
32.174	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
32.029	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
31.598	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
30.392	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
30.379	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
29.319	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
28.999	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
28.821	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
27.841	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022?	Continuous
27.521	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
27.101	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
26.554	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
26.506	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
26.324	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
26.056	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
26.044	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
25.642	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
25.247	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
23.964	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
23.781	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
23.397	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
23.331	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
23.216	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
22.856	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
21.566	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
20.660	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
20.470	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
19.846	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
19.787	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
19.049	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
17.995	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
17.560	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
17.546	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
17.533	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
17.433	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
15.431	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
15.277	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
14.933	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
14.899	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2022?	Continuous
14.767	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
14.317	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
13.847	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
13.336	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
13.009	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
12.594	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
12.270	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
12.267	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
11.966	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
11.958	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
11.559	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022?	Continuous
11.215	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
10.848	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
10.433	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
10.286	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
9.830	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
9.708	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
9.532	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
9.338	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
8.885	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
7.897	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
6.775	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
6.233	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
5.876	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
5.737	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
5.552	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
5.471	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
4.913	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
4.586	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
4.261	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.184	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.118	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
3.799	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
3.799	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?	Continuous
3.325	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
2.722	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
2.700	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
2.437	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
1.996	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
1.908	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
1.663	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
1.362	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
1.342	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 9, 2022 and July 2, 2022?	Continuous
1.269	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
1.218	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
0.931	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
0.693	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.657	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
0.382	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
0.372	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022?	Continuous
0.265	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
0.174	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
-0.000	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
-0.353	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-0.927	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.247	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-1.884	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-2.992	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
-3.106	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
-3.254	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
-3.491	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
-3.798	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-4.467	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-4.943	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-5.074	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-5.592	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
-6.417	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
-6.668	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
-6.957	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
-10.056	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
-10.391	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-10.804	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
-13.132	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-14.105	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
-14.841	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-15.035	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
-15.618	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
-16.245	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
-16.693	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-16.796	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
-17.785	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-18.111	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
-21.746	How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?	Continuous
-23.664	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
-27.198	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-27.593	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-28.379	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-35.046	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-35.847	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
-37.550	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
-39.073	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
-40.764	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-42.925	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
-42.934	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
-44.013	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-56.937	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-60.156	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-61.406	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-63.477	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-65.306	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-68.726	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-79.358	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-82.760	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-84.609	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (May 14)	Continuous
-87.093	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
-87.967	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-90.087	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
-92.443	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
-93.375	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-100.661	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-118.056	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
-121.602	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
-149.244	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
-167.518	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
-174.070	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-174.414	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-175.856	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
-182.085	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14)	Continuous
-184.591	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30)	Continuous
-185.418	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (May 14)	Continuous
-195.578	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-200.722	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30)	Continuous
-216.711	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-237.101	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary