jack

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

2.504k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
138.986	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
83.623	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
78.021	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
75.496	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
74.122	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
67.371	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
67.297	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
64.660	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
64.379	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
63.073	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
62.846	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
62.490	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
57.936	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
56.055	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
55.995	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
55.798	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
55.460	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
52.852	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
51.974	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
51.147	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
47.142	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
46.536	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
46.311	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
45.704	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
45.361	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
45.155	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
43.437	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
42.494	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
41.772	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
41.724	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
40.769	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
40.435	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
40.055	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
39.393	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
38.580	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
37.646	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
36.733	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
35.508	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
33.814	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
33.459	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
33.400	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
32.662	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
31.410	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
31.025	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
29.991	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
29.226	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
29.180	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
28.327	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
28.089	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
28.029	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
27.816	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
25.651	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
25.378	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
25.081	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
24.835	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
24.467	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
23.800	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
23.098	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
22.985	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
21.486	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
21.081	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
20.987	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
20.388	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
19.518	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
19.129	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
18.447	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
18.107	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
18.049	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
17.280	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
16.576	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
16.404	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
15.982	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
14.960	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
14.296	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
14.072	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
13.522	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
12.477	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
11.467	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
10.330	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
8.896	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
8.864	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
8.835	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
8.639	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
5.745	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
5.426	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
5.280	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
5.268	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
5.194	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
5.102	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
5.036	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
4.506	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
4.287	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
3.944	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
3.612	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
3.423	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
3.272	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
3.225	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.087	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
2.702	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
2.565	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
2.265	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
2.223	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
2.142	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
1.649	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
1.414	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
0.856	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
0.850	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
0.802	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
0.766	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
0.757	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
0.720	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
0.624	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
0.574	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
0.285	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.280	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
0.225	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
0.197	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
0.180	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.125	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
0.114	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
0.099	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
-0.097	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-0.230	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-0.899	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-1.009	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-1.812	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-3.695	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-3.725	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-5.943	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
-8.002	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-11.314	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-11.630	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-12.414	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-15.909	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
-16.739	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-17.862	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-26.068	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
-28.585	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-31.899	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-38.824	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-44.892	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-46.545	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-49.628	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
-57.525	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-62.309	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-143.436	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous