TeeJayKay

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8898	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
148.641	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
136.207	How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?	Continuous
134.479	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
132.519	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
128.218	How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?	Continuous
127.779	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
116.615	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
115.010	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
113.381	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
104.387	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
104.127	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
98.780	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
98.509	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.327	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
98.102	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
97.948	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
97.183	What will be the world population in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
97.103	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
96.772	How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?	Continuous
95.915	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
94.558	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
94.140	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
93.829	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
92.060	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
91.261	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
91.261	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
90.795	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
89.737	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
89.708	Will Reddit power user "maxwellhill" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell before 2026?	Binary
89.501	How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?	Continuous
88.337	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
87.873	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
87.832	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
87.231	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
86.949	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
86.193	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
85.521	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
85.331	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
85.293	Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?	Binary
84.768	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
84.721	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
83.833	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
83.723	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
82.816	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
82.701	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
82.035	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
80.809	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
79.522	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
79.459	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
78.870	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
76.526	In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
75.418	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
74.621	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
73.056	What will be the average inflation in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
73.024	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
71.976	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
71.740	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
71.352	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
71.141	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
70.498	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
69.613	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
69.257	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
68.260	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
67.848	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.736	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
67.271	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
65.598	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
65.371	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
65.233	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.233	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
64.978	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
64.791	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
64.541	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
64.181	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
64.164	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
64.121	Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?	Binary
64.078	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
63.882	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
63.455	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
63.414	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
63.237	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
62.826	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
62.171	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
62.148	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
61.250	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
61.213	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
60.682	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
59.589	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
58.422	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
58.319	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
58.240	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
58.167	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
57.836	Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?	Binary
57.556	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2025?	Continuous
57.093	How many months in prison will Sam Bankman-Fried be sentenced to before 2026?	Continuous
56.107	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
55.804	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
54.611	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
54.595	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
54.268	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
54.158	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
53.884	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
53.787	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
53.747	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
53.499	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
53.013	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
52.390	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
50.829	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
50.760	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
50.546	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
50.401	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
50.323	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
50.287	Will 3M file for bankruptcy before 2026?	Binary
48.403	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
47.940	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?	Continuous
47.401	What will the US life expectancy be in 2023?	Continuous
46.925	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
46.820	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
46.663	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
46.109	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
45.895	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
45.626	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?	Continuous
45.559	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
42.115	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
41.763	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
41.491	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
41.123	How many charter cities will exist by 2026?	Continuous
40.906	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
40.633	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
39.976	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
39.588	What will be Ukraine's score in The Democracy Index in 2024?	Continuous
39.438	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2025)	Continuous
38.957	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
38.306	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
38.251	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
37.948	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
37.648	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
37.527	Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	Binary
37.398	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
36.546	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
36.069	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
35.792	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
35.010	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
34.492	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
34.289	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
33.796	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
31.092	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 1000 questions?	Binary
30.720	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
29.835	What will be the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index for January 2025?	Continuous
29.462	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
29.014	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
28.293	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
28.133	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?	Continuous
28.013	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
26.396	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
26.269	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
25.165	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
23.921	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
23.698	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
23.439	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
21.591	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
21.553	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
20.249	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
19.144	Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?	Binary
18.943	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
18.495	What percentage of Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024?	Continuous
18.265	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
18.232	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
17.256	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
16.622	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
16.558	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
15.725	How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?	Continuous
15.631	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
15.550	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
15.127	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
12.791	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2024)	Continuous
12.375	Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?	Binary
11.571	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 100 questions?	Binary
11.253	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
10.673	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
10.147	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
8.708	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
8.465	What will be the minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2025)	Continuous
8.420	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
7.749	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
7.351	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
7.032	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
5.093	Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?	Binary
3.913	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
3.799	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
3.611	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
1.840	When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?	Continuous
1.701	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.696	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
1.323	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
0.993	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
0.947	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
0.520	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
0.431	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.362	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.192	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.135	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
-	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.447	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-1.664	How many estimated excess deaths due to starvation will occur in Ethiopia as a result of the Tigray war?	Continuous
-2.252	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-3.397	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
-3.697	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-6.361	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-7.839	Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of "Jestyn's" family?	Binary
-10.186	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-10.291	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
-10.455	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-12.146	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-13.167	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2024)	Continuous
-13.608	Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?	Binary
-14.586	Will Urbit development be ongoing in 2025?	Binary
-14.874	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2025)	Continuous
-15.170	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-19.099	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-20.127	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-20.262	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-21.654	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-22.828	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-25.126	Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?	Binary
-25.171	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-25.271	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
-26.491	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-29.429	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-29.939	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-34.350	How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?	Continuous
-36.364	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-41.575	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-44.146	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-53.490	Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?	Binary
-53.926	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	Continuous
-55.088	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-60.588	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-69.330	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
-77.430	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-78.693	How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?	Continuous
-87.709	When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?	Continuous
-120.167	When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?	Continuous
-120.428	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-136.446	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2024)	Binary
-142.451	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-168.824	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-192.353	What will be the maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous