JAJMLP

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.653k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
141.795	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
85.668	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
84.858	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
81.117	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
80.887	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
73.820	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
69.961	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
63.425	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
60.963	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
55.726	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
55.062	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
54.784	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
54.303	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
53.290	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
47.380	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
44.792	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
40.312	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
39.842	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
39.241	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
38.699	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
38.507	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
37.077	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
35.304	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
33.970	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
33.758	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
33.710	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
33.514	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
28.025	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
27.352	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
25.962	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
23.862	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
22.957	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
21.722	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
19.487	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
18.645	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
18.632	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
18.103	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
17.959	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
16.363	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
15.997	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
15.840	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
15.800	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
14.743	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
14.378	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
13.957	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
12.125	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
11.650	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
11.534	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
11.284	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
9.495	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
9.279	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
8.484	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
8.197	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
7.883	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
7.498	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
7.207	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
7.074	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
6.803	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
6.634	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
6.371	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
6.021	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
5.898	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
5.719	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
5.565	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
5.389	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
5.321	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
5.312	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
5.005	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
4.947	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
4.913	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
4.846	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
4.819	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
4.796	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
4.786	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
4.695	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
4.641	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
4.632	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
4.470	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
4.413	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
4.399	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
4.056	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
4.028	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
3.882	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
3.875	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
3.723	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
3.505	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
3.083	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
2.944	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
2.752	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
2.718	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
2.574	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
2.536	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
2.386	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
2.058	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
2.021	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
1.976	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
1.762	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
1.606	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
1.476	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
1.116	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
1.101	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
1.096	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
1.047	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
0.989	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
0.934	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.927	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
0.836	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.711	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
0.687	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
0.674	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
0.591	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
0.559	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
0.461	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
0.433	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
0.340	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.281	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
0.207	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
0.106	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
0.029	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
-0.051	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-0.164	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-1.053	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-1.655	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-1.673	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-1.966	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-2.780	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-4.141	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-6.167	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-6.577	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-8.688	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-11.802	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-12.309	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-17.916	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-71.106	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-167.265	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-191.783	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous