MaciekK

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022-23

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4457	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
110.138	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
97.919	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
97.878	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
97.350	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
97.331	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
97.121	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
95.247	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
94.316	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
93.757	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
93.456	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
92.803	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
92.788	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
90.747	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
90.276	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
89.029	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
89.008	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
88.525	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
88.430	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
87.447	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
87.422	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
87.249	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023)	Continuous
87.209	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
85.778	How much total trade volume (in 2021 USD) will Israel and Turkey trade in 2022?	Continuous
85.470	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
85.377	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
84.467	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
83.781	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
83.470	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
82.931	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
81.975	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
81.366	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2023)	Continuous
81.279	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
79.087	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
78.751	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
78.609	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
77.986	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
77.939	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
77.440	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
76.323	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
76.235	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
75.109	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
73.922	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
73.795	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
73.163	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
71.039	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
70.993	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
69.220	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
68.871	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
68.090	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
67.790	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
66.608	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
65.023	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
59.440	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
58.970	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
58.689	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
58.628	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
57.342	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
56.770	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
53.765	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
50.983	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
50.746	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
50.482	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
50.074	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
49.267	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
48.101	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
47.540	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
44.924	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
43.919	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
41.413	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
40.178	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
39.784	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
38.725	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Mar-23)	Continuous
34.932	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
32.883	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
32.785	In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?	Continuous
32.100	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
30.069	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
29.393	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
28.359	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
28.053	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
25.980	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
25.170	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
24.005	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
23.704	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
21.972	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
20.883	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
20.390	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
20.056	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
19.574	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
19.516	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
19.495	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
18.225	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
18.177	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
12.994	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
12.294	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-23)	Continuous
10.430	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
8.755	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
7.311	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
6.087	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
5.835	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
5.258	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
2.681	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-1.146	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-3.225	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
-9.402	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-11.348	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
-12.939	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
-13.498	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
-14.500	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
-28.318	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
-28.333	What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?	Continuous
-35.338	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-35.940	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-42.762	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
-49.357	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-23)	Continuous
-51.024	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-56.619	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-61.167	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-62.198	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-70.770	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-75.703	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
-80.182	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-84.728	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-109.127	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-149.989	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-196.810	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-203.394	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary