| 106.748 | On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| 100.677 | How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley? | Continuous |
| 98.702 | How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 98.149 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.149 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Barack Obama) | Binary |
| 98.149 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Alvin Bragg (Manhattan DA)) | Binary |
| 98.149 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Juan Merchan (New York judge)) | Binary |
| 98.149 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Arthur Engoron (New York judge)) | Binary |
| 98.149 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Letitia James (New York attorney general)) | Binary |
| 98.149 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Stephanie Clifford (AKA Stormy Daniels)) | Binary |
| 98.136 | Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538? | Binary |
| 97.433 | Will Boeing file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 96.903 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 96.903 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Fani Willis (Fulton Co. DA)) | Binary |
| 96.903 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Jack Smith (special counsel)) | Binary |
| 96.879 | Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 96.866 | Will any of these persons receive presidential pardons before President Biden's first term expires? (Michael Cohen (former Trump lawyer)) | Binary |
| 96.533 | Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026? | Binary |
| 95.034 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026? | Binary |
| 94.262 | Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025? | Binary |
| 93.797 | Who will be the next chancellor of Germany after 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 93.531 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 93.103 | Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026? | Binary |
| 93.038 | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 92.806 | Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026? | Binary |
| 92.687 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Alibaba) | Binary |
| 92.671 | Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025? | Binary |
| 92.422 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Hugging Face) | Binary |
| 92.324 | ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Mar 2025) | Binary |
| 92.281 | Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025? | Binary |
| 92.266 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Cohere) | Binary |
| 92.260 | ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Feb 2025) | Binary |
| 90.919 | Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 89.867 | How many months in prison will Hunter Biden be sentenced to before 2026? | Continuous |
| 89.443 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Baidu) | Binary |
| 89.345 | Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026? | Binary |
| 89.072 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (AI21) | Binary |
| 88.598 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (C3.ai) | Binary |
| 88.252 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (IBM) | Binary |
| 88.032 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 87.976 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Perplexity AI) | Binary |
| 87.674 | What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| 87.247 | Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025? | Binary |
| 86.869 | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (OpenAI / GPT-5) | Binary |
| 86.366 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Binary |
| 85.857 | Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026? | Binary |
| 85.281 | How many MPs will New Democracy have in the following dates? | Πόσους βουλευτές θα έχει η Νέα Δημοκρατία τις εξής ημερομηνίες; (June 30, 2025) | Continuous |
| 84.451 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (xAI) | Binary |
| 84.295 | Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 83.029 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (February 2025) | Continuous |
| 82.442 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025? | Binary |
| 82.356 | Which parties will form the governing coalition after the 2025 Germany Federal Elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 81.626 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (January 2025) | Continuous |
| 81.061 | Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 79.725 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? | Binary |
| 79.429 | What will be the COVID-19 booster coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US? (Children 6 months to 17 years) | Continuous |
| 79.144 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? (No) → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 78.899 | Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published? | Binary |
| 78.892 | Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026? | Binary |
| 78.077 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Apple) | Binary |
| 77.616 | Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026? | Binary |
| 77.510 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Mistral AI) | Binary |
| 76.051 | Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 75.798 | When will a cabinet-level nomination by Donald Trump be first confirmed by the Senate in 2025? | Continuous |
| 74.544 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 73.783 | Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 73.024 | Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI? | Binary |
| 72.800 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 72.660 | Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models? (Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus) | Binary |
| 72.153 | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026? | Binary |
| 69.648 | Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026? | Binary |
| 69.152 | Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 69.067 | Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025? | Binary |
| 68.480 | Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026? | Binary |
| 68.106 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Meta) | Binary |
| 67.543 | Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months? | Binary |
| 67.056 | What will be the average vaccination rate in US counties that report at least five measles cases in 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.213 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 62.552 | How many pounds of chicken per capita will the US consume in 2025? | Continuous |
| 62.296 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Microsoft) | Binary |
| 61.964 | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2025) | Continuous |
| 61.796 | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before April 19, 2025? | Binary |
| 60.958 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Republicans Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 60.835 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 60.555 | How many MPs will New Democracy have in the following dates? | Πόσους βουλευτές θα έχει η Νέα Δημοκρατία τις εξής ημερομηνίες; (December 31, 2025) | Continuous |
| 60.515 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2024-2025 season? | Continuous |
| 59.449 | On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States? | Binary |
| 59.101 | Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize? | Continuous |
| 58.804 | Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026? | Binary |
| 58.364 | Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025? | Binary |
| 57.745 | What will be the flu vaccine coverage for the 2024-25 season among the following groups in the US? (Children 6 months to 17 years) | Continuous |
| 54.986 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Apr-25) | Continuous |
| 52.956 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2025? | Continuous |
| 51.704 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be confirmed by the US Senate as Secretary of Health and Human Services before April 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.686 | Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 51.524 | Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026? | Binary |
| 51.100 | Will car crash deaths in the US be below 40,000 for 2024? | Binary |
| 50.510 | Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026? | Binary |
| 50.135 | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H5) | Continuous |
| 47.390 | Will there be Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria within one year from October 28, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.832 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 46.682 | What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2024-25 season be among the following groups in the US? (Infants < 8 months) | Continuous |
| 45.377 | Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025? | Binary |
| 43.945 | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026? | Binary |
| 43.188 | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H3N2) | Continuous |
| 42.982 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 42.821 | Will California’s 2018 Proposition 12, "Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act", be in effect on January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 42.042 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-25) | Continuous |
| 41.690 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-25) | Continuous |
| 41.517 | Who will win the 2025 election for President of Ecuador? | Multiple Choice |
| 41.472 | Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years? (2026) | Binary |
| 40.374 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (TOP 09) | Continuous |
| 39.934 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Mayors and Independents (STAN)) | Continuous |
| 39.703 | How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025? | Continuous |
| 39.176 | Will Indian authorities report that two hundred million or more pilgrims have attended Kumbh Mela? | Binary |
| 38.498 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Pirate Party) | Continuous |
| 38.231 | How much money in billions of USD will NIH award in Research Project Grants in the 2025 Fiscal Year 2025 (Oct 1, 2024 - Sep 30, 2025)? | Continuous |
| 37.725 | What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2024-2025 season? (H1N1) | Continuous |
| 37.094 | Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026? | Binary |
| 35.414 | How many US states will have a kindergarten measles vaccination rate below 90% for the 2024-2025 school year? | Continuous |
| 34.671 | Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025? | Binary |
| 34.626 | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025? (No) → How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025? | Continuous |
| 33.871 | How many of Donald Trump's appointments to the cabinet will not be confirmed by the Senate? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.334 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-25) | Continuous |
| 31.652 | Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 31.597 | Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026? | Binary |
| 30.628 | How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 30.550 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-25) | Continuous |
| 30.125 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 29.750 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (3,000) | Binary |
| 29.277 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-25) | Continuous |
| 29.112 | Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated for a new term in January 2025? | Binary |
| 28.116 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Civic Democratic Party (ODS)) | Continuous |
| 27.925 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 26.292 | Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026? | Binary |
| 24.914 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Christian Democratic Party (KDU-ČSL)) | Continuous |
| 24.533 | Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases? | Binary |
| 24.342 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD)) | Continuous |
| 24.241 | Who will be elected President of Poland in 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 24.045 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2025) | Binary |
| 23.812 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
| 23.591 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Leicester) | Continuous |
| 23.132 | Will Denzel Washington win the Oscar for the Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator II? | Binary |
| 22.792 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 21.488 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 21.427 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 21.315 | Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason? | Binary |
| 21.227 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 21.009 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 20.875 | How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election? (ANO 2011) | Continuous |
| 20.850 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 20.674 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 19.947 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Ipswich) | Continuous |
| 19.687 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
| 19.474 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 19.260 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 19.121 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 18.770 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 18.732 | Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025? | Binary |
| 18.714 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Feb-25) | Continuous |
| 18.653 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 18.505 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 18.133 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 18.117 | Will the US start the process of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 17.254 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-25) | Continuous |
| 17.173 | What will Bangladesh's World Press Freedom Index rating be for 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 17.026 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 16.974 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 16.742 | Will another US state ban lab-grown meat in 2025? | Binary |
| 15.866 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 15.798 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 15.503 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 15.385 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 13.981 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 13.510 | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2025) | Continuous |
| 13.420 | Who will be the CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor in the next German federal election? | Multiple Choice |
| 12.730 | Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before October 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 12.696 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 12.351 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2024-2025 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 11.467 | When will SpaceX first successfully catch a Starship booster with the tower? | Continuous |
| 10.840 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-25) | Continuous |
| 10.043 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (December 2024) | Continuous |
| 8.843 | Will Ju Wenjun win the Women's World Chess Championship 2025? | Binary |
| 8.692 | Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.366 | Will Ontario Premier Doug Ford call an early provincial election for 2025? | Binary |
| 7.155 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Club Brugge) | Binary |
| 7.155 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (PSV Eindhoven) | Binary |
| 7.066 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Lille OSC) | Binary |
| 6.810 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 6.788 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 6.788 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 6.653 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Atlético Madrid) | Binary |
| 6.295 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Bayer Leverkusen) | Binary |
| 5.400 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-25) | Continuous |
| 5.091 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: March 29, 2025) | Continuous |
| 4.731 | Before January 1, 2026, will Israel formally lift its warnings against Palestinians returning to northern Gaza? | Binary |
| 3.977 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
| 3.436 | What will be the nominal price of gas per gallon in the US on the following dates? (January 2026) | Continuous |
| 2.487 | Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.218 | A porcentagem de veículos elétricos plug-in (BEV e PHEV) chegará a 5% do número total de vendas em 2025? | Binary |
| 2.069 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Mar-25) | Continuous |
| 1.886 | Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Taiwan) | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (India) | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Indonesia) | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (The Philippines) | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Mexico) | Binary |
| 1.752 | Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026? (Sri Lanka) | Binary |
| 1.226 | Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.096 | Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024? | Binary |
| 0.566 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 0.254 | What Percentage of Democrats and Republicans will Vote-by-Mail in 2024? (% Democrats Voting-by-Mail) | Continuous |
| 0.228 | What party will win the most seats in the 2025 Republic of Ireland Parliamentary election? | Multiple Choice |
| - | Will current use gifts to Harvard decrease for fiscal year 2025 relative to fiscal year 2023? | Binary |
| - | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence? | Binary |
| -4.113 | When will GPT-5 be available to the general public? | Continuous |
| -7.545 | Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -7.621 | When will Microsoft release Windows 12? | Continuous |
| -8.864 | What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the end of April 2025? | Continuous |
| -12.122 | What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season? | Continuous |
| -12.483 | What will be the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025? | Continuous |
| -21.813 | Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors? | Binary |
| -23.794 | How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026? | Multiple Choice |
| -29.929 | What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2024-25 season be among the following groups in the US? (Eligible pregnant persons) | Continuous |
| -31.381 | Will antimicrobial drug sales for use in livestock production increase by at least 0.5% in 2024 relative to 2023? | Binary |
| -33.410 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (100) | Binary |
| -38.568 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-25) | Continuous |
| -38.995 | Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF? | Binary |
| -45.355 | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before July 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -53.449 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2025) | Continuous |
| -54.560 | Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025? | Binary |
| -55.489 | When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US? | Continuous |
| -56.832 | Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| -60.336 | When will OpenAI publicly release Sora, its text-to-video model? | Continuous |
| -61.363 | Will electric vehicles make up more than 10% of new light duty vehicle sales in the United States before October 2025? | Binary |
| -120.207 | Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025? | Binary |
| -141.656 | Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (Amazon) | Binary |
| -152.911 | Before 2026, how many US states will pass legislation regulating deepfakes? | Continuous |
| -189.868 | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| -190.174 | Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026? (1,000) | Binary |
| -317.818 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person on any day before 2026? | Binary |