patmyron

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3486	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
129.077	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
127.499	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
124.681	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
115.918	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
102.857	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AAPL)	Continuous
97.706	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
97.280	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
96.679	Will Spain win the Eurovision Song Contest in 2025?	Binary
95.649	What will the first reported revenues after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
94.355	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
91.588	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
91.558	Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?	Binary
90.835	Will Atlético de Madrid win the EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?	Binary
90.193	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
89.085	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (NVDA)	Continuous
88.980	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
86.440	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
84.044	Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?	Binary
82.960	What will be Nigeria's year-on-year inflation for February 2025?	Continuous
81.234	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
79.073	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
78.508	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
78.211	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025? (No) → What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
76.177	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
73.208	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
73.148	Will the world's five largest companies at the end of 2025 be in the tech sector?	Binary
72.878	Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?	Binary
71.145	Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
70.641	What will the first reported earnings per share after March 2025 be for the following companies? (AMZN)	Continuous
70.468	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
67.884	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
67.614	Will Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate in February 2025 be below 3.0%?	Binary
66.856	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
59.882	Who will win the Tour de France 2025?	Multiple Choice
57.626	Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?	Binary
54.091	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
53.662	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
52.368	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
50.713	What will Nvidia's earnings per share be for Q4 FY2025 (the quarter ending January 26, 2025)?	Continuous
49.483	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
49.194	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
49.062	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
48.943	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
46.481	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
45.077	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (Captain America: Brave New World)	Continuous
44.607	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
43.850	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
42.650	Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?	Binary
42.410	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
41.447	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025? (No) → What will the national average price of eggs (in USD per dozen) be in the United States on March 26, 2025?	Continuous
41.125	What will be the annual rate of new US building permits issued in February 2025 for privately-owned housing units?	Continuous
39.936	How many parties will be in the next German parliament?	Multiple Choice
39.326	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Feb 24, 2025 to Mar 2, 2025)	Continuous
37.546	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (MSFT)	Continuous
37.436	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
37.195	How many artists in the top 10 of the Billboard Artist 100 in the last week of March will be new to the top 10 that week?	Multiple Choice
32.020	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
30.850	What will the number of active US drilling rigs be on March 28, 2025?	Multiple Choice
30.718	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
28.524	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 16, 2025)	Continuous
28.412	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
25.609	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Monkey)	Continuous
25.435	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
24.068	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
23.997	By what distance, measured in horse lengths, will the first place finisher win the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup?	Multiple Choice
22.859	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
22.189	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
21.987	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
21.961	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
18.859	What will the first reported revenues after September 2025 be for the following companies? (TSLA)	Continuous
17.890	How many trillion dollar companies will there be on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
15.829	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
15.638	Will FC Barcelona win both the Liga F1 and the Women's Champions League in the 2024/25 season?	Binary
15.404	Which country will the winner of the 2025 Tokyo Marathon be from?	Multiple Choice
14.652	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
14.074	What will be the maximum daily average CO₂ reported by the Mauna Loa Observatory for March 1-25, 2025?	Continuous
13.127	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
12.883	When in 2025 will President Donald Trump sign into a law a reconciliation bill?	Multiple Choice
12.863	What will the flash consumer confidence in the Euro Area be for March 2025?	Multiple Choice
12.401	Who will win the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Multiple Choice
12.258	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
11.807	How much will "Captain America: Brave New World," "The Monkey," and "The Alto Knights" earn in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend? (The Alto Knights)	Continuous
11.416	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
10.373	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
10.348	What will the ratio of the price of 1 bitcoin to 1 troy ounce of gold be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
10.293	What will happen next with respect to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit for US individuals who purchase an EV (30D)?	Multiple Choice
10.169	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
9.773	Will Liverpool win the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League?	Binary
9.386	What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in February 2025?	Continuous
8.956	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
7.527	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
7.214	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
6.684	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
6.614	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (ARES)	Binary
6.614	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (MSTR)	Binary
6.614	Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before June 30, 2025? (TTD)	Binary
6.450	Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?	Binary
6.069	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
5.573	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
4.752	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
4.596	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
4.387	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
3.558	Will Pierre Poilievre be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2025?	Binary
3.299	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
2.971	When will Canada replace Justin Trudeau with a new Prime minister?	Continuous
2.317	Will the Department of Justice or Education open a civil compliance investigation into whether diversity-related programs at Harvard constitute illegal discrimination or preferences before 2026?	Binary
1.909	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
1.861	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
1.608	How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
1.035	Who will win the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?	Multiple Choice
0.101	Who will win the Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Tour Final 2025?	Multiple Choice
0.007	Who will be the next President of Romania in 2025?	Multiple Choice
-1.737	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-2.705	How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-5.959	Will Daniel Noboa be elected President of Ecuador in 2025?	Binary
-11.290	What cumulative percentage of the geographic area of Texas will be classified as under moderate drought or worse (D1-D4) as of March 18, 2025?	Continuous
-15.229	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
-18.657	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
-19.041	What will Japan's preliminary net tourist inflow be for February 2025?	Continuous
-22.584	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
-23.742	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-34.662	Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?	Binary
-34.817	Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-36.229	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-52.567	Will Kylian Mbappé be the top scorer in LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?	Binary
-52.583	What will be the highest percentage change in stock price among Hermes, Dior, and LVMH during the 2025 Paris Fashion Week Womenswear Fall/Winter?	Continuous
-54.345	Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-95.642	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-155.056	What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies? (META)	Continuous
-160.589	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-570.580	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary