| 162.282 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 99.793 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 99.192 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.541 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.298 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.982 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.556 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.250 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.249 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.742 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.735 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 93.979 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.617 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.608 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.520 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 91.478 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.952 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.991 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.544 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 85.632 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.370 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 80.104 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 79.661 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 78.666 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 77.605 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 77.123 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 75.148 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 74.934 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 74.823 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 74.745 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 72.917 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 70.204 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 69.169 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 66.915 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 66.123 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 65.331 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 64.365 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 63.871 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 63.273 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 59.577 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 59.249 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 55.463 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 55.463 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 55.007 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 55.007 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 55.007 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 54.638 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 53.940 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 52.260 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 51.630 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 49.509 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 48.006 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.952 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 42.999 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 42.999 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 42.736 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 42.584 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 42.045 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 40.002 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 39.590 | Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 39.170 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 38.400 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 38.400 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 38.194 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 37.968 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.139 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 34.592 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.312 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.848 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 29.324 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 29.279 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 26.151 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 24.974 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 24.974 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 24.974 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 24.967 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 24.295 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.614 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 22.614 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.045 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 21.905 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 20.832 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 20.531 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 20.531 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 20.531 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 20.346 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 16.498 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 14.444 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 13.835 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 13.561 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 12.893 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 12.861 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.631 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 11.574 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 8.413 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.290 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 8.212 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 6.690 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.564 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.194 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 6.194 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 6.177 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 6.177 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 6.023 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 5.849 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 5.687 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 5.687 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 5.671 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 5.587 | Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 4.852 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 3.046 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 2.166 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 2.015 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 1.910 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.318 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -0.000 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| -0.405 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| -0.858 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -6.352 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -9.321 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -12.548 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -16.043 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -20.096 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -23.674 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -33.439 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -35.326 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -37.966 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -56.462 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -56.510 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -78.299 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -80.079 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| -97.552 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -146.861 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -196.613 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -198.335 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -223.473 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |