darron

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8251	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.250	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
99.227	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
99.223	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
98.579	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
98.200	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
97.923	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
95.771	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
95.712	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
93.348	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
93.124	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
92.674	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
92.662	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
92.196	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.448	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
88.539	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
87.780	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
87.378	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?	Multiple Choice
86.578	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
86.144	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
86.131	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
85.535	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
85.391	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
85.126	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
84.149	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.944	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.926	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.052	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania?	Multiple Choice
81.852	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
81.748	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
81.489	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
81.245	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
81.173	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
80.863	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
79.903	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
79.782	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
79.779	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
79.602	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
78.865	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
78.736	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.070	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
77.456	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
77.159	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
76.928	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
76.673	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.665	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
76.654	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
76.645	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
76.022	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
74.874	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
74.817	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
74.709	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
74.624	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
74.248	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
73.060	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
72.864	What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
72.628	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
72.408	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
71.872	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia?	Multiple Choice
71.555	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
71.357	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
71.093	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
70.780	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
68.364	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
68.181	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
68.134	Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?	Binary
67.959	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka?	Multiple Choice
67.563	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
67.365	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
67.038	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
66.965	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
66.464	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
66.410	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
66.110	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
65.663	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
65.607	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
64.690	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.502	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
64.237	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.067	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana?	Multiple Choice
63.598	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
63.502	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
62.926	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
61.216	Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?	Binary
60.888	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
60.888	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
60.649	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
59.882	Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024?	Multiple Choice
59.730	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
59.666	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
59.463	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
59.208	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
57.627	Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024?	Multiple Choice
57.501	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
55.135	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
54.853	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
53.731	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
53.039	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
51.760	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
50.716	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
50.124	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
49.944	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
49.875	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
48.787	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
48.609	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
46.666	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad?	Multiple Choice
46.026	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.024	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
45.339	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
45.287	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
44.911	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
43.588	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
42.339	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
40.501	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
39.650	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
39.203	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
38.951	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
37.351	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.013	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
35.626	Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024?	Multiple Choice
35.191	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.702	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
34.449	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
34.339	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
33.614	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
33.448	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
32.624	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
30.660	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
30.498	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
30.406	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.432	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
29.169	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
28.003	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau?	Multiple Choice
27.838	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
27.529	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
25.128	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
24.855	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
24.500	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
23.876	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
22.543	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
22.150	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
22.025	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
21.606	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
21.403	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
20.751	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
19.138	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
17.569	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
16.310	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
15.620	Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season?	Multiple Choice
15.426	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
14.138	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic?	Multiple Choice
14.118	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
13.841	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
13.102	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
12.723	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
12.129	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
12.043	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
11.942	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
11.094	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
9.547	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
8.923	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
8.536	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
7.761	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
7.517	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
7.405	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
6.885	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
4.820	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
4.600	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
4.374	Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?	Binary
3.090	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
3.020	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
2.125	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
1.230	Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award?	Multiple Choice
1.014	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
0.916	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
-0.589	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-1.043	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.280	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
-2.273	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-3.604	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-4.052	Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?	Binary
-5.013	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-8.374	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-8.470	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-8.494	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-9.982	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-10.488	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-13.470	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-14.561	Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-14.610	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-15.322	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-15.803	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-16.867	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.859	How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?	Multiple Choice
-21.925	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-23.775	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-24.494	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-27.840	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland?	Multiple Choice
-50.210	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-52.169	Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-56.716	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-58.567	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-60.438	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-65.446	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-65.633	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-69.619	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-72.667	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-76.136	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-91.200	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-103.655	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-113.957	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-124.804	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-124.980	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-137.261	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland?	Multiple Choice
-151.051	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-181.343	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
-240.712	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary