Perspectus

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7203	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.408	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
99.176	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
99.154	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
99.138	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
98.895	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024)	Continuous
98.102	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
97.631	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
97.595	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
97.457	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
96.571	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
96.432	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
96.052	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
95.956	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.681	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
95.661	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.348	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
95.263	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
94.976	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
94.463	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
93.592	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
93.259	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
93.174	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
93.099	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
93.094	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
93.085	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
92.894	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
92.862	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.850	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.591	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
92.129	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
91.716	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
91.675	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
90.888	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
90.838	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
89.974	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
89.062	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
88.909	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
88.771	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024)	Continuous
88.401	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
87.880	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
85.333	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.958	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
83.744	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
83.492	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
83.313	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
82.381	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
81.309	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
79.844	How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024?	Continuous
79.756	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
79.183	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
77.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
77.231	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
77.173	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
76.580	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.045	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
76.040	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
75.877	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
75.877	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
75.877	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
75.476	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
75.146	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
73.980	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
73.914	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
73.831	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
73.240	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
73.225	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
73.182	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected)	Continuous
73.118	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
72.656	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
72.634	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
71.740	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
71.591	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
71.317	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 4, 2024)	Continuous
70.862	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
68.473	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
65.806	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
65.524	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
65.146	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
64.718	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024)	Continuous
64.304	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
62.404	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
60.938	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?	Binary
60.740	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
60.058	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States)	Continuous
59.596	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
59.523	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
59.375	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
59.244	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
57.996	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
55.601	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
55.359	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
55.268	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
53.532	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (May 18, 2024)	Continuous
53.125	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
51.553	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
51.195	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
50.691	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
50.478	What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024?	Continuous
48.958	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jun. 1, 2024)	Continuous
48.838	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
47.770	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
47.652	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
46.872	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
46.794	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.409	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.171	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024)	Continuous
44.844	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
43.444	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
42.935	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
41.211	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
40.616	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
39.320	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
38.359	What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?	Continuous
37.892	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024)	Continuous
36.968	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
34.474	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
33.091	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
32.140	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
31.683	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
31.623	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
27.328	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
25.913	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
25.655	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024)	Continuous
25.580	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
25.159	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
24.418	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.483	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
23.483	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
23.483	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
23.457	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
23.448	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
23.439	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
23.274	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
22.993	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
22.595	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
20.968	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
20.904	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
20.621	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
19.925	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
19.101	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
18.420	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
18.240	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
17.069	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
16.806	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
16.409	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
14.828	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
13.456	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
11.628	What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament?	Multiple Choice
11.467	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
10.306	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
9.524	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (November 23, 2024)	Continuous
6.034	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
5.781	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
4.648	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
4.554	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
4.358	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
2.768	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024)	Continuous
1.847	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
1.841	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
1.390	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
1.332	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
1.302	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
1.110	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
0.946	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
0.825	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
-0.176	Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.920	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-2.905	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-4.505	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
-5.361	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.453	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-8.769	What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: December 28, 2024)	Continuous
-11.991	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-13.102	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-14.627	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-17.300	What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
-18.058	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-18.994	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-27.619	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-28.437	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-32.185	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
-44.300	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-46.594	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-47.536	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
-49.407	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 24, 2024)	Continuous
-51.383	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-56.778	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-58.029	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-63.496	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-70.116	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
-78.829	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-81.200	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
-90.851	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-126.094	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-127.879	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-130.985	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-139.992	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
-159.024	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-171.270	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-180.770	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-251.378	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-526.588	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary