MaximusMinimus

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3812	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.045	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
97.045	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
91.779	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
91.590	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
88.548	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
87.482	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
87.390	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
87.050	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
86.467	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
86.015	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
85.787	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
83.885	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
83.261	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
82.937	Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024?	Multiple Choice
82.568	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
81.088	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
80.010	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
79.628	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.049	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
77.593	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
77.083	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
76.599	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
74.647	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
74.237	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
73.460	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
72.673	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
72.419	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
72.036	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
70.653	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?	Multiple Choice
70.612	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
68.670	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
68.373	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
68.191	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
67.346	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
66.787	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
66.357	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
64.672	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
64.395	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
63.555	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka?	Multiple Choice
62.557	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
62.547	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
62.102	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
60.751	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
60.168	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
60.137	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
59.921	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
59.076	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
57.794	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
57.689	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (April 2024)	Continuous
57.592	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
55.759	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia?	Multiple Choice
55.593	Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024?	Multiple Choice
55.476	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania?	Multiple Choice
55.016	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
54.480	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
54.051	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
53.813	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
53.398	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
51.514	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
51.420	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
51.130	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad?	Multiple Choice
49.517	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
49.170	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
49.169	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
48.869	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election?	Multiple Choice
48.809	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
48.126	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
47.371	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
46.359	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
45.465	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
45.464	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
45.208	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
44.555	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
43.947	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana?	Multiple Choice
43.342	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
42.932	Who will be the new leader of PASOK after the elections of October 2024? \| Who will be the new PASOK leader after the October 2024 elections?	Multiple Choice
42.736	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
42.652	Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?	Binary
42.366	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
41.489	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
41.406	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
40.956	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
40.714	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
40.180	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
39.794	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
39.624	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
39.547	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
39.176	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
38.217	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
37.999	Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024?	Multiple Choice
37.763	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
36.846	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
36.551	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
36.290	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.990	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.514	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
31.929	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
30.369	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
29.911	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
28.303	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
27.895	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau?	Multiple Choice
27.828	Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?	Binary
27.590	Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025?	Binary
27.298	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
27.048	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
26.556	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
26.494	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
25.779	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
24.630	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
24.370	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
23.015	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
22.135	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
21.856	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
21.731	What will be the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024?	Continuous
21.586	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
21.572	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
19.576	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
19.288	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
18.570	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
17.952	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
17.586	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic?	Multiple Choice
17.075	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
17.046	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
16.626	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
15.974	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
15.719	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
13.578	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
11.831	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
11.329	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
11.321	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
10.152	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
9.297	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
8.443	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
8.434	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
8.227	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
8.220	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
7.336	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
5.514	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
5.403	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
4.662	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
4.451	When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs?	Multiple Choice
2.414	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
2.256	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
1.153	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
1.120	How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior?	Continuous
1.018	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
0.303	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-0.411	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
-0.847	On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2024)	Continuous
-4.249	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
-4.984	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-5.265	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-5.971	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
-8.557	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-8.733	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-9.178	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-11.630	Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?	Binary
-18.437	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-18.802	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
-19.485	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
-20.396	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-23.819	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.324	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland?	Multiple Choice
-28.373	Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?	Binary
-32.852	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
-34.501	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-35.173	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-36.249	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
-39.708	Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?	Binary
-41.064	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-49.620	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
-49.629	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-50.940	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
-51.990	Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?	Multiple Choice
-53.609	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
-54.877	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland?	Multiple Choice
-66.328	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-66.867	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-73.934	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-75.082	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-81.042	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-82.911	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-101.623	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-115.593	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
-127.525	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-129.808	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
-197.013	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-229.892	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-705.867	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary