EQ

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4444	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.113	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
94.235	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
93.460	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
92.555	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
92.127	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
92.108	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
91.569	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.750	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
90.717	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
90.477	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.206	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
89.778	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
89.035	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.001	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
88.645	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
87.674	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
84.139	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
83.119	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.029	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
80.711	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.360	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
79.649	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
79.436	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
79.260	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.680	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.573	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
78.573	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
77.317	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
76.260	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
76.152	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
75.956	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
75.022	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
74.403	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
74.304	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
72.793	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
69.973	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
67.562	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
67.545	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
66.088	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
65.795	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
65.247	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
62.835	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
62.433	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
62.308	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
61.575	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
61.510	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
60.922	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
59.918	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
59.607	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
59.003	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
58.931	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
58.661	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
57.177	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
56.896	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
56.161	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
54.360	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
54.013	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
51.961	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
50.698	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
49.121	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
48.798	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
48.447	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
48.401	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
47.307	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
46.686	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
44.015	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
41.252	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
41.072	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
40.646	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
39.964	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
38.507	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
36.183	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
36.005	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
34.333	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
34.044	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
32.458	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
31.840	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
31.676	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
31.675	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
30.532	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
29.918	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
27.666	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
26.681	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
25.833	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
25.620	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
25.360	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
25.080	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
24.411	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
19.556	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
16.073	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
15.523	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
15.356	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
14.771	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
13.509	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
12.815	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
12.212	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
11.338	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
11.109	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
9.276	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
7.961	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
7.686	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
6.681	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
5.231	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
5.128	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
4.930	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
2.684	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
2.300	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
2.183	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
1.305	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
1.109	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
0.679	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
-2.396	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-2.901	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-4.518	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-10.287	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
-10.860	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-16.048	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-18.093	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-19.002	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-20.616	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-25.402	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-34.469	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-34.962	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-41.788	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-63.439	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-68.681	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-71.295	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-87.667	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-88.299	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-93.254	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-102.571	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-105.456	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-273.552	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary