jack

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

8.898	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
76.672	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
64.591	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
46.323	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
46.261	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
45.284	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
44.302	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
42.051	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
38.688	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
35.935	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
35.244	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
28.986	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
25.894	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
25.735	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
25.573	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
24.104	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
23.739	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
23.630	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
22.850	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
22.833	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
22.820	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
22.021	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
19.958	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
19.898	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
19.780	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
18.055	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
18.046	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
16.755	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
15.510	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
15.413	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
15.136	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
14.740	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
14.700	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
14.600	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
14.116	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
14.102	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
13.506	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
12.936	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
12.587	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
12.542	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
12.472	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
12.412	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
12.303	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
11.898	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
11.612	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
11.487	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
10.444	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
10.203	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
9.710	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
9.660	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
9.310	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
8.170	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
8.130	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
8.050	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
7.976	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
7.779	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
7.744	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
7.743	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
7.729	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous
7.679	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
7.625	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
7.269	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
7.210	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
7.160	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
7.042	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
6.563	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
6.498	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
6.492	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
6.417	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
6.364	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
6.358	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
5.528	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
4.920	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
3.771	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
3.739	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
3.685	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
3.640	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
3.636	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
3.636	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
3.629	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
3.578	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
3.414	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
3.240	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
3.085	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
2.933	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
2.863	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
2.784	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
2.625	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
2.416	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
2.154	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
1.984	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
1.963	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
1.801	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
1.575	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
1.573	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
1.483	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
1.235	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
1.219	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
1.032	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
0.708	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
0.646	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
0.623	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
0.605	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
0.553	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
0.516	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
0.487	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
0.431	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
0.420	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
0.328	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
0.308	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
0.302	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
0.291	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
0.251	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
0.234	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
0.232	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
0.165	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
0.163	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
0.153	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
0.144	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
0.112	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
0.077	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
0.076	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
0.071	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
0.063	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.060	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
0.056	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
0.046	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
0.039	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
0.032	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
0.030	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
0.009	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
-0.015	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-0.021	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
-0.142	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
-0.436	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
-0.447	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-0.640	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-1.366	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
-1.792	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
-1.963	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-2.004	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
-3.086	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-5.527	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-7.681	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
-10.575	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-10.703	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-35.297	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous