Alexander230

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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15.03		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
150.743	100.0%	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
99.913	96.0%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
71.717	49.9%	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	Continuous
46.261	100.0%	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
37.655	92.0%	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
32.270	69.5%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
30.036	48.4%	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
26.907	98.4%	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
24.882	49.9%	How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?	Continuous
24.012	99.9%	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
21.808	37.3%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
21.546	66.3%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
19.693	64.8%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
17.997	42.0%	What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?	Continuous
16.339	54.4%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
15.880	77.9%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
14.994	84.5%	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
13.960	55.8%	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
13.823	99.9%	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
13.775	95.0%	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
12.688	99.6%	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
11.663	90.4%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
11.424	22.9%	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
9.053	79.1%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.912	59.2%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
7.348	78.7%	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	Continuous
6.759	95.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
6.699	22.8%	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
6.415	7.2%	If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?	Continuous
6.221	84.6%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
4.711	76.1%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
4.237	10.8%	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
3.855	22.1%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
3.703	11.3%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
3.355	3.6%	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L4)	Continuous
3.323	99.6%	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
3.082	48.3%	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
2.942	2.9%	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024?	Continuous
2.810	48.4%	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
2.767	7.7%	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
2.678	5.5%	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
2.372	94.0%	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	Continuous
2.259	48.3%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
1.887	5.8%	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
1.798	23.5%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
1.619	32.3%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
1.494	27.3%	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
1.036	27.4%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.950	2.0%	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
0.919	9.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
0.909	2.3%	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
0.889	1.2%	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
0.878	3.6%	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
0.738	1.8%	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours?	Continuous
0.693	1.2%	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
0.686	5.8%	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	Binary
0.643	2.8%	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	Binary
0.622	2.3%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
0.541	25.9%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
0.500	1.7%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
0.492	2.6%	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	Continuous
0.488	1.2%	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
0.409	1.7%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
0.358	1.2%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
0.344	3.5%	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
0.325	99.8%	As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	Continuous
0.274	0.7%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
0.229	1.0%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
0.205	1.1%	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
0.204	3.3%	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
0.146	2.7%	Will 100 kilotonnes of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, before 2024?	Binary
0.121	0.4%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
0.118	1.2%	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
0.116	0.5%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
0.116	96.5%	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
0.107	0.5%	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
0.088	0.8%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
0.067	10.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics	Continuous
0.054	0.1%	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
0.039	0.6%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
0.038	0.1%	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
0.038	0.4%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
0.035	10.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
0.018	0.1%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
0.018	0.4%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-0.012	0.2%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
-0.032	0.4%	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
-0.122	4.5%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
-0.216	13.9%	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-0.793	31.2%	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
-0.905	24.9%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
-0.979	10.7%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?	Continuous
-1.069	9.0%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race	Continuous
-1.386	6.0%	Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?	Binary
-1.424	10.5%	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
-1.549	9.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems	Continuous
-1.549	9.7%	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
-1.843	30.5%	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
-2.197	10.3%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering	Continuous
-2.259	17.8%	When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?	Continuous
-2.338	18.9%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
-2.394	83.4%	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
-3.100	19.1%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-3.160	22.8%	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	Continuous
-4.552	55.2%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
-5.846	8.9%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
-8.621	70.8%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-10.796	83.6%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
-11.327	59.8%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
-11.673	81.9%	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
-13.653	98.8%	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
-14.078	78.4%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
-19.367	98.8%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
-27.059	99.6%	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
-30.255	83.0%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-40.414	84.9%	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	Continuous