93.516 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
86.458 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
67.845 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
53.541 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
49.593 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
47.974 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
43.676 | How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
43.347 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
39.128 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
39.123 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
38.221 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
31.226 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
30.775 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
28.659 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
28.248 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
25.264 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
23.495 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
17.118 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
15.575 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
14.704 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
12.397 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
12.125 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
12.029 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
11.995 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
11.706 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
11.565 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
11.135 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
10.535 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
10.256 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
10.234 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
10.053 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
9.860 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
8.203 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
8.067 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
7.867 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
4.766 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
4.358 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
4.348 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.960 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
3.926 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
3.767 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
3.624 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
3.430 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
3.035 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
3.013 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
2.696 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
1.270 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
0.902 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
0.803 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
0.741 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
-0.120 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
-4.246 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |