bte

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2025

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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20.09		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
114.868	97.8%	Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?	Binary
104.664	93.7%	What will bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market be on March 30, 2025?	Continuous
104.579	94.7%	Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?	Binary
102.677	88.5%	How many players will Monster Hunter Wilds have simultaneously online on March 21, 2025?	Continuous
96.288	98.3%	Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?	Binary
94.739	99.4%	Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?	Binary
82.013	89.6%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/CAD)	Continuous
81.612	99.9%	Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?	Binary
69.837	99.9%	Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?	Binary
67.907	81.9%	What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?	Continuous
66.473	75.4%	Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?	Binary
64.122	85.1%	What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?	Continuous
62.408	78.5%	What will the 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield be on March 19, 2025?	Continuous
57.387	59.6%	What percent of the European Union's gas storage capacity will be full on February 12, 2025?	Continuous
55.964	94.9%	Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?	Binary
55.069	89.0%	What ranking will RedNote have in the Apple app store in the Social Networking category on February 17, 2025?	Continuous
54.725	84.1%	How many subscribers will the MrBeast YouTube channel have on March 30, 2025?	Multiple Choice
54.442	64.7%	On March 28, 2025, what will be the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, the Mexican peso, and the Chinese yuan? (USD/MXN)	Continuous
48.548	78.5%	What will be the lowest seed team to make it to the Elite Eight of the NCAA's 2025 March Madness women's basketball tournament?	Multiple Choice
47.584	99.9%	Will a fourth person solve a Rubik's cube in less than 3.44 seconds before March 31, 2025?	Binary
42.596	99.6%	Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?	Binary
39.623	86.0%	Will the winner of the rugby Men’s 2025 Six Nations Championship have at least 5 more total competition points than the second place?	Binary
39.213	98.6%	How many acres will be reported as burned in California during 2025 on March 4, 2025?	Continuous
37.532	99.5%	Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?	Binary
34.991	93.2%	Who will have de facto power in Gaza City on August 31, 2025?	Multiple Choice
33.906	91.9%	Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?	Binary
32.779	99.6%	On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
30.739	95.7%	Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?	Binary
30.067	93.3%	Will François Bayrou step down or be removed from his position as Prime Minister of France before March 31, 2025?	Binary
28.241	40.8%	Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?	Multiple Choice
28.223	99.5%	Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?	Binary
26.417	84.1%	Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?	Binary
24.880	92.4%	Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?	Binary
23.298	76.3%	Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?	Binary
21.764	93.7%	Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?	Binary
21.218	74.1%	What will the total number of Tesla vehicle deliveries be for Q1 2025?	Continuous
20.873	84.6%	Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?	Binary
18.777	97.7%	Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
18.712	59.0%	Will the combined weekly percentage of emergency department visits in the United States due to COVID-19, RSV, and influenza fall below 2.7% on any date before March 16, 2025?	Binary
18.617	84.6%	Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?	Binary
18.264	84.4%	Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026? (DeepSeek)	Binary
17.938	96.9%	What will be the longest field goal of the 2025 NFL season?	Continuous
17.618	81.5%	Will Călin Georgescu be elected President of Romania after the 2025 elections?	Binary
16.921	99.2%	Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?	Binary
16.657	99.9%	Who will win the Liberal Party of Canada's leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister of Canada?	Multiple Choice
16.589	78.3%	Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?	Binary
16.437	86.0%	What will the total market cap of the Magnificent Seven be on March 28, 2025?	Continuous
16.378	98.3%	Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?	Binary
16.039	49.0%	Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?	Binary
16.011	99.4%	Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?	Binary
15.045	99.4%	Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?	Binary
14.892	88.5%	Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?	Binary
14.396	94.9%	Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?	Binary
14.385	66.6%	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?	Binary
13.457	19.3%	Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?	Binary
13.365	76.9%	Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?	Binary
12.219	18.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services))	Binary
11.817	96.2%	Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?	Binary
11.774	29.0%	Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?	Binary
11.054	91.9%	Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?	Binary
10.977	68.6%	Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?	Binary
10.155	30.5%	How many top-four seeds will reach the semifinals of the 2025 NCAA College Football playoff?	Multiple Choice
10.067	74.1%	Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?	Binary
9.162	94.9%	Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?	Binary
9.116	94.9%	Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?	Binary
8.818	49.4%	What will US airline passenger volume be for these weeks in February and March 2025, according to the TSA? (Mar 3, 2025 to Mar 9, 2025)	Continuous
8.767	79.0%	Will Pam Bondi be out as US Attorney General before March 2026?	Binary
8.691	16.3%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence))	Binary
8.419	88.5%	Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?	Binary
8.236	83.1%	Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?	Binary
8.010	85.8%	Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?	Binary
7.359	21.3%	Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?	Binary
6.026	56.3%	Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?	Binary
5.108	91.8%	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?	Binary
4.453	23.9%	How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?	Multiple Choice
4.359	45.1%	Who will win the Texas 18th district special election?	Multiple Choice
4.335	50.0%	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the following years? (2026)	Binary
4.289	12.6%	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2025 NBA Cup?	Multiple Choice
4.041	65.2%	When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?	Multiple Choice
3.762	17.3%	Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?	Binary
3.617	99.6%	Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?	Binary
3.222	66.2%	Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?	Binary
2.882	9.1%	Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?	Binary
2.559	27.9%	Will Anthropic announce an AI Claude 4 model in 2025?	Binary
2.295	74.8%	How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.234	87.1%	What will India's Consumer Food Price Index provisional year-over-year inflation rate be for February 2025?	Continuous
1.665	18.0%	Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?	Binary
1.599	4.1%	Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?	Binary
1.226	9.7%	Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?	Binary
1.004	27.8%	How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?	Continuous
0.653	37.0%	Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?	Binary
0.498	3.5%	Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?	Binary
0.491	13.0%	Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025?	Binary
0.337	1.7%	Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?	Binary
-0.655	41.3%	Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?	Binary
-2.010	3.4%	Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?	Binary
-2.069	39.7%	Will Ukraine reduce the minimum age for compulsory military service before 2026?	Binary
-2.674	11.1%	Will semaglutide be taken off FDA's drug shortage list in 2025?	Binary
-2.873	11.8%	Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?	Binary
-4.495	94.1%	Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?	Binary
-8.154	94.7%	Will Nvidia stock close 2025 higher than it started?	Binary
-9.080	15.3%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?	Binary
-11.372	58.9%	Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?	Binary
-11.695	81.5%	Will Rafał Trzaskowski be elected President of Poland in 2025?	Binary
-19.456	14.1%	How many runs will be scored in the 2025 World Series?	Continuous
-21.510	90.2%	Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?	Binary
-22.369	38.4%	Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?	Binary
-22.508	32.7%	Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?	Binary
-24.813	99.6%	Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?	Binary
-25.654	99.6%	Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?	Binary
-28.664	38.0%	Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-34.594	42.5%	Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?	Binary
-42.029	47.2%	Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?	Binary
-47.732	25.0%	Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?	Binary
-48.249	78.6%	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?	Continuous
-59.871	45.6%	Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?	Binary
-68.897	92.8%	Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?	Binary
-71.580	94.9%	Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?	Binary
-74.810	98.2%	Will the President’s Malaria Initiative program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?	Binary
-99.198	92.5%	How much will Nvidia's stock price returns exceed Apple's in the following biweekly periods of Q3 2025? (Aug 18 - Aug 29)	Continuous
-109.787	94.1%	Will the following Trump Cabinet nominees withdraw or be voted down in the Senate before March 31, 2025? (Any of Trump’s Other Nominees (See Fine Print))	Binary