WPR

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.045	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.162	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
49.169	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
37.811	What will be this question's comment threads h-index?	Continuous
34.659	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
29.534	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
21.401	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
19.853	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
19.456	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
18.690	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
15.904	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
14.589	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
12.150	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
10.389	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
10.163	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
7.642	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
5.352	Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?	Binary
4.954	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
4.554	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
4.341	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
3.531	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
3.434	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
3.401	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
3.266	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
3.038	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
2.825	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
2.532	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
1.856	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
0.723	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
0.515	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
0.499	Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?	Binary
0.233	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
-0.151	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
-0.155	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
-0.200	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
-0.501	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
-1.089	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-2.223	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-3.947	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
-4.501	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
-5.616	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-6.319	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-7.053	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
-12.472	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
-15.671	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-18.831	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
-19.163	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
-58.603	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous