thmt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

5.287	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
58.323	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
28.559	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
28.362	When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?	Continuous
22.412	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
21.096	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
20.683	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
20.320	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
18.684	What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
17.739	Will the question asking whether Scott will mention it on Astral Codex Ten resolve ambiguously?	Binary
13.802	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
12.491	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
12.388	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
10.824	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
10.818	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
10.567	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
10.471	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
9.001	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
7.098	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
6.875	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
6.826	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
6.819	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
5.279	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
5.053	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
3.492	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
2.726	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
2.467	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
2.317	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 7th of January, 2022?	Continuous
2.288	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
2.037	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
1.843	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
1.267	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
1.092	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
0.496	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
0.479	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.417	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
0.360	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
0.338	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
0.303	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
0.244	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
0.217	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in May 2021?	Continuous
0.188	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
0.179	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
0.141	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
0.124	What will the average travel nurse salary in Virginia be for the 90-day period ending 31 March 2022?	Continuous
0.100	Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?	Continuous
0.002	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-0.251	In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?	Continuous
-1.332	Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?	Binary
-1.506	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
-2.523	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-5.847	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
-7.414	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
-9.250	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
-10.734	What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in June 2021?	Continuous
-13.513	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-14.426	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
-19.470	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous