Bristol_OPT

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

14.22	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.015	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
79.256	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
62.173	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
53.164	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
52.912	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
49.479	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
42.948	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
39.765	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
33.630	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
31.358	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
31.131	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
30.402	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
29.090	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.714	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
20.512	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
19.682	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.486	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.000	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
17.700	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
17.677	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
17.628	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
17.005	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
16.463	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
13.273	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.102	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
12.430	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
12.376	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.821	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.481	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
8.389	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
8.232	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
7.811	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
7.235	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
6.745	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.577	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
5.647	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.644	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.495	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.491	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.118	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
3.068	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.939	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
2.012	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
1.843	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.619	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
1.323	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
0.680	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.364	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
0.219	Will Ukrainian military forces strike targets more than 10 kilometers inside Russian territory?	Continuous
0.013	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.010	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.007	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.007	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.004	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.003	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.003	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.002	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
-0.457	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
-1.098	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.164	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
-1.938	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
-2.605	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
-3.175	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
-5.413	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.179	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
-13.389	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary