sigitaskeras

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

7.847	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
35.720	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
21.431	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
21.207	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
19.063	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
14.036	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
13.432	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
13.234	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
12.796	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
12.073	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
11.548	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
11.274	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
11.138	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
10.974	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
10.968	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
9.636	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
9.631	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
8.169	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
7.916	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2023)	Continuous
7.859	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
7.614	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
7.349	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
7.309	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
6.837	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
6.633	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
6.461	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
6.356	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
5.309	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
5.259	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
4.886	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
4.701	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
4.483	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
4.175	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
4.164	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
3.824	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
3.774	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
3.751	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
3.747	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
3.265	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
2.740	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
2.611	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
2.497	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
2.454	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
1.251	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
-2.563	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-17.873	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary