17 forecasters

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026?

Deny some entities90%

Deny ≤99 countries75%

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing1%

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all, allow US or int'l licensing

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Authors:

puffymist PeterWildeford dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

Jun 6, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2030

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

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Will the US restrict transfer of AI architectures, training algorithms, or documentation etc. before 2026?

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny ≥100 countries

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026?

Deny some entities

Deny ≤99 countries

Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?