Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
374
comments
1.8k
forecasters
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
chance
1
comment
4
forecasters
Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?
15%
chance
185
comments
623
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
30%
chance
6
comments
8
forecasters
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?
Current estimate
Jan 2061
28
comments
410
forecasters
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
chance
8
comments
75
forecasters
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?
2%
chance
0
comments
64
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
5%
chance
4
comments
73
forecasters
Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?
3%
chance
3
comments
189
forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1%
chance
15
comments
282
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29%
chance
Load More