Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

116 forecasters

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027, before

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

97 comments

95 forecasters

Will the IAEA report that the Zaporizhzhya NPP has regain...

resultNo

87 comments

88 forecasters

How many cumulative losses of all off-site power at the Z...

community

17 value

result

18 value

88 comments

90 forecasters

Will Russia's Rostekhnadzor issue an operating license fo...

resultNo

4 comments

123 forecasters

Another U.S.–Iran face-to-face meeting by June 6?

resultNo

36 comments

36 forecasters

Will the German Bundeswehr or Federal Ministry of Defence...

resultNo

13 comments

239 forecasters

US-Iran nuclear deal before Sep 2025?

resultNo

15 comments

93 forecasters

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action revived by December 2028?

50%chance

Key Factors

Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?
Possible death of Khamenei
foxnews.com:
Trump discusses expansion of drug cartel crackdown, issues grim warning to Iran

3 comments

169 forecasters

Will ceasefire in b/t Israel/the US & Iran be announced before Mar 15, 2026?

resultNo

192 comments

697 forecasters

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?

5%chance

Key Factors

Deterrence against israel
Political will to maintain the threat of strikes
Stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium likely unaffected by strikes

28 comments

138 forecasters

US Rejoins Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024

resultNo

100 comments

97 forecasters

Will Taipower formally submit a restart plan for the Kuos...

resultNo

16 comments

86 forecasters

Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?

resultNo

8 comments

15 forecasters

US or IL Strike on Iran Nuclear Facility in 2025?

community

30 Jun 2025

result

13 Jun 2025 03:00 UTC

122 comments

120 forecasters

Will there be at least one INES Level 3 or higher event in 2026 listed by May 1, 2026?

resultNo

0 comments

31 forecasters

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation before the following years?

105 comments

105 forecasters

Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experience another complete loss of external power before

resultYes

9 comments

126 forecasters

Who gets nukes by 2035?

Iran20%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

Poland5%

6 others

6 comments

38 forecasters

NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?

0.1%chance

0.9% this week

Key Factors

Many variables delay space missions
arstechnica.com:
Trump commits to Moon landing by 2028, followed by a lunar outpost two years later

5 comments

72 forecasters

5Y after AGI, nuclear fusion 10% world energy

20%chance

5% this week

107 comments

107 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?

resultNo

6 comments

47 forecasters

US nuclear weapon use before May 2026?

resultNo

6 comments

78 forecasters

US-Iran War by 2024

resultNo

1 comment

3 forecasters

Conditional Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?

This question is closed for forecasting.