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22
comments
89
forecasters
Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?
result
No
condition
US is a NATO Member until 2029?
31
forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
20%
20%
US-China war before 2035?
15%
15%
4
0
comments
31
31
forecasters
The Taiwan Tinderbox
0
comments
49
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
5%
chance
5%
this week
29
comments
254
forecasters
When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?
Current estimate
May 2043
47
comments
334
forecasters
Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?
25%
chance
1
comment
101
forecasters
Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?
result
No
13
comments
239
forecasters
Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?
result
No
9
comments
109
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
63%
Saudi Arabia
14%
South Korea
7%
7 others
3
comments
26
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
8.7%
chance
46
comments
149
forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
Current estimate
1.1 weapons
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