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0
comments
20
forecasters
Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?
5%
chance
13
comments
62
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
4.4%
chance
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
14
comments
21
forecasters
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
10%
chance
15%
this week
5
comments
29
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
22%
chance
6
comments
46
forecasters
If these countries are attacked by a nuclear weapon by 2030, how many cities in that country will be offensively attacked?
Europe
12.6
Russia
10.7
United States
9.88
5 others
17
comments
152
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
10%
chance
0
comments
31
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
3%
chance
2%
this week
8
comments
94
forecasters
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?
1.9%
chance
Key Factors
Kim Jong Un interested in new talks with Trump
No Imminent Prep Visible at Punggye-ri
Diplomatic Optics Over Missile Tests
35
comments
575
forecasters
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
15%
chance
1
comment
4
forecasters
Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?
15%
chance
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