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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

35%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

5%chance
2.5% this week

Key Factor

Israeli air strikes risk diplomatic collapse

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

result13 Jun 2025 03:00

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

28%chance

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

May 2042

When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?

Ambiguous

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

00

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

23%chance
5% this week

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

4%chance

Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?

resultNo