Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
🗳️
US Democracy Index
❓
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
🗞️
In the News
🦾
AI Forecasting Benchmark
📈
Indexes
💎
Metaculus Cup
🌍
AI Pathways
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
13
comments
57
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
6%
chance
13%
this week
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
4
comments
29
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
22%
chance
11%
this week
17
comments
150
forecasters
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
9%
chance
0
comments
30
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
5%
chance
3
comments
5
forecasters
How many doctorates will be awarded in various fields in 2031?
Engineering
4575
Physics
548
Microbiology and immunology
543
9 others
6
comments
10
forecasters
When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?
Current estimate
Mar 2062
8
comments
86
forecasters
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?
2%
chance
2%
this week
Key Factors
Kim Jong Un interested in new talks with Trump
Diplomatic Optics Over Missile Tests
No Imminent Prep Visible at Punggye-ri
1
comment
4
forecasters
Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?
15%
chance
35
comments
575
forecasters
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
15%
chance
4
comments
38
forecasters
Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?
3%
chance
2%
this week
Load More