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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

04 Sep 2030 (08 Mar 2028 - Jun 2036)

221

675 675 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

04 Sep 2030

(08 Mar 2028 - Jun 2036)

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

29 Aug 2027 (20 Sep 2026 - 19 Oct 2029)

224

684 684 comments

1.8k

1.8k forecasters

29 Aug 2027

(20 Sep 2026 - 19 Oct 2029)

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

26.1 months (7.57 - 108)

42

358

358 forecasters

26.1 months

(7.57 - 108)

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

99

99 forecasters

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

1.97 years (-3.55 - 13.3)

14

70

70 forecasters

1.97 years

(-3.55 - 13.3)

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

0.5% chance

13

92

92 forecasters

0.5%chance

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

88% chance

14

131

131 forecasters

88%chance

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

82% chance

5

55

55 forecasters

82%chance

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95% chance

42

282

282 forecasters

95%chance