Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?result: no121212 comments9191 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?result: no71212 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza before January 7, 2025?17.8% chance5858 comments3030 forecastersAmbiguous
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?5% chance51010 comments5757 forecasters5%chance
Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?70.7 deaths per 100k (40.9 - 103)40 comments1414 forecasters70.7 deaths per 100k (40.9 - 103)
Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?result: no131818 comments7373 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2525 forecasters1%chance
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecastersResolved231k
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6060 forecasters
How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?Annulled1133 comments1515 forecastersAnnulled
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?53% chance344 comments2020 forecasters53%chance
Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?result: no966 comments5252 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?Ambiguous744 comments4242 forecastersAmbiguous
Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?result: no1211 comment8181 forecastersResolvedNo