Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6161 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again30 comments
How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?104 (55.7 - 446)1133 comments1515 forecasters104 (55.7 - 446)
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?result: no944 comments8383 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?result: no966 comments5252 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?25% chance322020 comments163163 forecasters25%chance
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?result: no71212 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?result: no322 comments6666 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance1322 comments166166 forecasters7%chance
Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard?result: no333 comments6464 forecastersResolvedNo
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?5% chance51010 comments5757 forecasters5%chance
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecasters848k (376k - 2.15M)
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza before January 7, 2025?17.8% chance5858 comments3030 forecastersAmbiguous
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2626 forecasters1%chance
Respiratory Outlook March Update: Measles Expected to Surge This Year as Respiratory Season Winds Down40 comments
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?77.7 deaths per 100k (45.8 - 103)40 comments1414 forecasters77.7 deaths per 100k (45.8 - 103)
Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?result: no131818 comments7373 forecastersResolvedNo