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What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.646

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.957

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

condition

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

24 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

7 7 comments

24 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

4 comments

21 forecasters

Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?

61.8%chance

12 comments

53 forecasters

Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?

resultNo

0 comments

15 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?

Current estimate

68.8 deaths per 100k

2 comments

159 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

20 comments

160 forecasters

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

25%chance

27 comments

225 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

5 comments

152 forecasters

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae58%

Other 24 known HIVF25%

Coronaviridae15%

This question is closed for forecasting.