Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC411 comment
Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?11 comment33 forecasters
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?10% chance51010 comments5656 forecasters10%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?result: no1344 comments131131 forecastersResolvedNo
How many deaths from Tuberculosis will occur globally in the following years?744 comments1515 forecasters
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?result: no71212 comments5353 forecastersResolvedNo
Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?result: no2977 comments132132 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22.8% chance332727 comments228228 forecasters22.8%chance
How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?1104 (1099 - 1111)99 comments2424 forecastersResolved1101
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza before January 7, 2025?17.8% chance5858 comments3030 forecastersAmbiguous
Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?result: no111212 comments112112 forecastersResolvedNo
Five years after AGI, what will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease?70.7 deaths per 100k (40.9 - 103)40 comments1414 forecasters70.7 deaths per 100k (40.9 - 103)
Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?result: no131818 comments7373 forecastersResolvedNo
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?848k (376k - 2.15M)51212 comments5151 forecastersResolved231k
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6060 forecasters
How many infections of novel Henipavirus will have occurred before 2023?Annulled1133 comments1515 forecastersAnnulled
How many Tuberculosis cases (per 100k people) will occur globally in the following years?311 comment55 forecasters