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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before July 2027?

9% chance

1
55 comments
10
10 forecasters
9%chance

How many New World Screwworm animal cases will be confirmed in the US in 2027?

35.5 cases (11.1 - 138)

2
33 comments
7
7 forecasters
35.5 cases
(11.1 - 138)

What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?

1
33 comments
7
7 forecasters

How many U.S. cases of cyclosporiasis will occur in the 2026 season before September 1, 2026, according to the CDC?

>14k Cases (10.7k - >14k)

1
66 comments
12
12 forecasters
>14k Cases
(10.7k - >14k)

Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC

4
0 comments

Announcing the Global Health Monitor 2026/27

2
0 comments

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

3131 comments
31
31 forecasters

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

2626 comments
27
27 forecasters

Will a novel human-infectious pandemic originate in these countries before 2100?

11 comment
3
3 forecasters

How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?

48 cases (39 - 58)

1515 comments
16
16 forecasters
48 cases
(39 - 58)

Key Findings from Frontiers in Disease Prevention with Coefficient Giving

6
11 comment

Respiratory Outlook June Update: New World Screwworm Enters the US

3
0 comments

Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?

result: no

3
5959 comments
221
221 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

3.6% chance

3
1212 comments
24
24 forecasters
3.6%chance

Will the WHO announce a H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

22% chance

1
11 comment
12
12 forecasters
22%chance

Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?

8% chance

1
1111 comments
63
63 forecasters
8%chance

Forecasting for Situational Awareness in an Emerging Public Health Crisis

11
0 comments

Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?

0.1% chance

5
2020 comments
107
107 forecasters
0.1%chance

Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?

result: yes

43
4949 comments
238
238 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2040?

60% chance

11 comment
6
6 forecasters
60%chance

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

50% chance

13
22 comments
95
95 forecasters
50%chance

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

18% chance

1
22 comments
19
19 forecasters
18%chance