When will an airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus monitor be commercially available?>Jan 2034 (Jun 2032 - >Jan 2034)122 comments44 forecasters>Jan 2034 (Jun 2032 - >Jan 2034)
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?66% chance755 comments3737 forecasters66%chance
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?0.4% chance35454 comments209209 forecasters0.4%chance
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?9% chance11010 comments6565 forecasters9%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.4% chance51919 comments106106 forecasters0.4%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)499 comments1818 forecasters15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)
Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?result: yes274141 comments143143 forecastersResolvedYes
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?30% chance322020 comments162162 forecasters30%chance
How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?39 cases (31 - 52)1111 comments1515 forecasters39 cases (31 - 52)
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?18.9% chance51010 comments5858 forecasters18.9%chance
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?result: yes866 comments5959 forecastersResolvedYes
Will CDC report at least one newly identified human infection with a novel influenza A virus in the United States before May 1, 2026?result: no121121 comments122122 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?4419 (3821 - 5202)142626 comments7474 forecasters4419 (3821 - 5202)
Will CDC’s official U.S. human A(H5N1) case tally increase by at least one before April 30, 2026?result: no126126 comments124124 forecastersResolvedNo
Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?2121 comments1919 forecasters
How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?104k (80.3k - 160k)377979 comments218218 forecasters104k (80.3k - 160k)
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?376 (322 - 440)132121 comments6969 forecasters376 (322 - 440)