When will an airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus monitor be commercially available?>Jan 2034 (Feb 2032 - >Jan 2034)122 comments44 forecasters>Jan 2034 (Feb 2032 - >Jan 2034)
Will at least 5 non-passengers be linked to the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak before August 2026?1% chance35454 comments215215 forecasters1%chance
Will WHO declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2027?0.4% chance51919 comments106106 forecasters0.4%chance
Pandemic series: a major naturally-originated pandemic by 2026?result: yes434949 comments238238 forecastersResolvedYes
How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)499 comments1818 forecasters15.5 variants (14 - 20.3)
What will be the global annual death rate (per 100,000 people) from infectious disease in the following years?833 comments6161 forecasters
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?18.9% chance51010 comments5858 forecasters18.9%chance
Respiratory Outlook April Update: Measles Surge Slows as Flu Season Ends with Likely Moderate Severity50 comments
How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?8967 (2609 - 34.2k)744 comments4242 forecasters8967 (2609 - 34.2k)
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?77 comments2525 forecasters
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?2361 (2044 - 2691)112020 comments5353 forecasters2361 (2044 - 2691)
Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?5% chance433434 comments301301 forecasters5%chance
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?53% chance1322 comments9797 forecasters53%chance
Respiratory Outlook May Update: Low Chance for Hantavirus Spread as Measles Forecast Drops Again30 comments
Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?1% chance51818 comments2626 forecasters1%chance
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?3.9% chance31212 comments2525 forecasters3.9%chance
When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?32424 comments2222 forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2024-2025 season?33434 comments2626 forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season?84646 comments1818 forecasters
Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?13% chance5252 comments2929 forecastersAmbiguous
When will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern be declared by the WHO?04 Oct 2022 (21 Jul 2022 20:18 - 04 Jul 2023)888 comments2929 forecasters04 Oct 2022 (21 Jul 2022 20:18 - 04 Jul 2023)