Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?20% chance12121 comments758758 forecasters20%chance
How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?1.73 CRT (0.92 - 2.88)155 comments55 forecasters1.73 CRT (0.92 - 2.88)
Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?result: no1466 comments118118 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?50% chance211 comment88 forecasters50%chance
Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?16.4% chance522 comments1414 forecasters16.4%chance
Will a biologic therapy targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis be tested in humans before 2038?53% chance344 comments2020 forecasters53%chance
At last? Clinical trials of a vaccine for the common cold?result: no1144 comments5050 forecastersResolvedNo
New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?result: no1011 comment4545 forecastersResolvedNo
Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?result: no611 comment6161 forecastersResolvedNo
When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?29 Oct 2030 (10 Nov 2027 - Aug 2035)202727 comments9696 forecasters29 Oct 2030 (10 Nov 2027 - Aug 2035)
Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?result: yes532222 comments144144 forecastersResolvedYes
Will any (non-UK) European Union member state grant regulatory approval for clinical trials using human embryonic stem cells by the end of May?40% chance61010 comments5050 forecastersAmbiguous
From Reduction to Elimination: Replicating the Successes of Historical Tuberculosis Control50 comments