Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?62.5% chance11 comment22 forecasters62.5%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?399 comments4040 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?70% chance66 comments2626 forecasters70%chance
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?322 comments2222 forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?result: yes104646 comments199199 forecastersResolvedYes
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?722 comments5151 forecasters
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?result: no161414 comments121121 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
When will the first company with a market cap above the given figures be openly run by an AI CEO?433 comments2525 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?81717 comments6666 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?10% chance366 comments9797 forecasters10%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?30 Apr 2030 (04 Jan 2028 - Jun 2035)113838 comments112112 forecasters30 Apr 2030 (04 Jan 2028 - Jun 2035)
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?33% chance444 comments7272 forecasters33%chance
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?result: no422 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
*Closes Mar 31, 2026* Which company will own the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI (LMSYS) Text Leaderboard as of April 30, 2026?0 comments1010 forecasters