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0
comments
32
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
12%
Amazon Web Services
11%
1 other
2
comments
40
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
5%
1 other
3
comments
62
forecasters
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
48%
chance
24%
this week
15
comments
24
forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Current estimate
58.8%
9
comments
40
forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerberg
result:
No
Sundar Pichai
result:
No
Sam Altman
result:
No
2 others
Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant
0
comments
566
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
18 Nov 2027
Key Factors
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
8
comments
35
forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
7
comments
34
forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
42.6%
2 or 3
41.8%
4 or 5
10.6%
3 others
5%
Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence
10
0
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
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