7 comments
123 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 348.8%
0 or 131.7%
4 or 513.4%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
1 comment
9 forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
82.6%
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
3.3% this week
19 comments
20 forecasters
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
Current estimate
Oct 2035
2 comments
56 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
85%chance
629 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
75%
563 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
02 Oct 2027