97 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
95 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
567 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
27 Nov 2027
Key Factors
7 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 348.9%
0 or 135.5%
4 or 511.4%