0 comments
97 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
32%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
95 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
resultNo
7 comments
124 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 345.2%
0 or 140.1%
4 or 511.5%
565 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
08 Oct 2027
0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
630 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jun 2033
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
19 comments
238 forecasters
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?
95%chance