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Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Will a bot finish in the top 5 of the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?

98% chance

17

17 forecasters

98%chance

Got Opinions on AI & Labor? The Labor Automation Tournament Comment Prize Deadline is September 1.

4

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30% chance

24

332

332 forecasters

30%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

99% chance

24

145

145 forecasters

99%chance

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

44

44 forecasters

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

111

111 forecasters

By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?

11 Jan 2027 (26 Aug 2026 - 30 Jun 2027)

2

17

17 forecasters

11 Jan 2027

(26 Aug 2026 - 30 Jun 2027)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

58

58 forecasters

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

7

44

44 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

71% chance

6

72

72 forecasters

71%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

3

3 forecasters

How Will AI Change Work? Forecast the Future of Labor Automation — $35,000 in Prizes

13

Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub

9

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28% chance

37

471

471 forecasters

28%chance

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters