Will the annual revenue run rate of the top two AI labs in 2030 exceed $1T (2026 USD)?62.5% chance11 comment22 forecasters62.5%chance
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?622 comments5353 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?1022 comments5656 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?71010 comments4141 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters30%chance
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?98% chance333 comments66 forecastersAnnulled
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?27% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters27%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?99% chance231313 comments141141 forecasters99%chance
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?132020 comments3838 forecasters
Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025?622 comments3131 forecasters
How many of the 10 most important advancements in machine learning or artificial intelligence of 2025-2030 will have been discovered by an AI system?3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)166 comments1919 forecasters3.84 (1.35 - 7.74)
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?182424 comments9898 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?70% chance633 comments7373 forecasters70%chance
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?11% chance42626 comments4949 forecasters11%chance
On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?222 comments1212 forecasters