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AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

Hyperbolic takeoff

7

Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?

1

115

115 forecasters

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

71% chance

6

75

75 forecasters

71%chance

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

90% chance

1

134

134 forecasters

90%chance

CTs Deep Learning Revenue → CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2

22

22 forecasters

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: July 2026 Updates

7

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

18% chance

33

325

325 forecasters

18%chance

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

result: yes

25

145

145 forecasters

ResolvedYes

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

14

38

38 forecasters

Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?

80% chance

17

17 forecasters

80%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

6

62

62 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

98% chance

3

6

6 forecasters

Annulled

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

10

58

58 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

111

111 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

44% chance

38

476

476 forecasters

44%chance

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

51

51 forecasters

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

3

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

4

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

42

42 forecasters