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0
comments
31
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
29%
Google Cloud
14.2%
Microsoft Azure
14%
1 other
2
comments
39
forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
25%
Microsoft Azure
5%
Amazon Web Services
5%
1 other
Metaculus AI Forecasting Benchmark Resources Page
3
18
18
comments
2
comments
120
forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
42.8%
2 or 3
38.4%
4 or 5
12.1%
3 others
7%
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
4
4
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
21
comments
299
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%
chance
44
comments
432
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%
chance
Contributed by the
JetBrains
community.
1
comment
8
forecasters
What percentage of developers in 2025 will have a concern that the adoption of AI coding will decrease the demand for professional software developers?
Current estimate
77.1%
12
comments
63
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
85%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
70%
9 others
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