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Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

32%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud12%

Amazon Web Services11%

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments

11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

95 comments

95 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

resultNo

9 comments

40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

0 comments

566 comments

1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate

18 Nov 2027

Key Factors

3 comments

61 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet34.6%

OpenAI21.2%

Anthropic18.2%

8 comments

35 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?