3 comments
58 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet32.7%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic18%
7 comments
123 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 348.8%
0 or 131.7%
4 or 513.4%
0 comments
95 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 19.00% on 2025-10-23 for the Metaculus question "Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?"?
35%chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
564 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
05 Oct 2027
630 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
1 comment
9 forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
82.6%
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
3.3% this week
19 comments
20 forecasters
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
Current estimate
Oct 2035
2 comments
56 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?
85%chance