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What will be the average performance on ANIMA for AI models released between June 2026 and June 2027?

72.7 (69.5 - 76.1)

27

27 forecasters

72.7

(69.5 - 76.1)

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

16 Jun 2028 (13 Nov 2026 - Feb 2032)

223

618 618 comments

1.7k

1.7k forecasters

16 Jun 2028

(13 Nov 2026 - Feb 2032)

How many of the top 2026 AI labs will reference animal welfare in their models' guidelines at the end of 2034?

2

26

26 forecasters

When will gross world product exceed every previous year by 30% due to AI?

Jun 2039 (19 Jul 2030 - Feb 2063)

26

175

175 forecasters

Jun 2039

(19 Jul 2030 - Feb 2063)

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

7

84

84 forecasters

When will commercially available robots be able to build a personal computer on their own?

03 Sep 2030 (07 Mar 2029 - Dec 2032)

20

20 forecasters

03 Sep 2030

(07 Mar 2029 - Dec 2032)

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1% chance

49

437

437 forecasters

1%chance

Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub

9

When will concern about artificial intelligence go mainstream in the United States?

29 Apr 2028 (04 Feb 2027 - 19 Apr 2030)

12

82

82 forecasters

29 Apr 2028

(04 Feb 2027 - 19 Apr 2030)

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

93.5 (89.4 - 96.8)

5

738

738 forecasters

93.5

(89.4 - 96.8)

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

26 May 2029 (05 Jun 2027 - Mar 2033)

46

179

179 forecasters

26 May 2029

(05 Jun 2027 - Mar 2033)

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

96% chance

4

192

192 forecasters

96%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Jan 2033 (26 Apr 2029 - Jan 2041)

219

654 654 comments

1.9k

1.9k forecasters

Jan 2033

(26 Apr 2029 - Jan 2041)

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

7

54

54 forecasters

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040? → US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

11

51

51 forecasters

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

95% chance

42

279

279 forecasters

95%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

40

172 172 comments

276

276 forecasters

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50% chance

38

101 101 comments

468

468 forecasters

50%chance

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

19

104

104 forecasters

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

85% chance

38

38 forecasters

85%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

24% chance

37

467

467 forecasters

24%chance

If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Mar 2038 (18 Jan 2031 - Oct 2053)

35

165

165 forecasters

Mar 2038

(18 Jan 2031 - Oct 2053)