Will a Cognitive-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?25% chance99 comments33 forecasters25%chance
Will a Cognitive-domain AMC be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?50% chance11 comment11 forecaster50%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO be employed in an irregular seizure or retention of power within five years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?20% chance11 comment11 forecaster20%chance
Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?5% chance11 comment11 forecaster5%chance
Will an open weight AI model achieve Mythos-level cyber capabilities before July 2027?95% chance77 comments4040 forecasters95%chance
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?30 Aug 2027 (11 Sep 2026 - 17 Dec 2029)224669669 comments1.8k1.8k forecasters30 Aug 2027 (11 Sep 2026 - 17 Dec 2029)
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45212212 comments321321 forecasters
Will an AI independently gain unauthorized access to a computer system at the following levels from September to December 2026?11111 comments115115 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?75% chance22222 comments5252 forecasters75%chance
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
When will a sitting US President make a declaration about AI that meets the following criterion?111818 comments1818 forecasters
Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?49% chance22 comments1313 forecasters49%chance
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)220669669 comments1.9k1.9k forecasters21 Jan 2031 (16 Apr 2028 - Jul 2037)
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?28% chance11 comment1717 forecasters28%chance
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?90% chance755 comments6868 forecasters90%chance
Will any regulatory body ban the deployment of AI agents within an OECD country before 2030?21.8% chance11 comment2020 forecasters21.8%chance
Will the following entities enact a liability law before October 1, 2027 for developers of AI systems that hack other systems?66 comments1717 forecasters
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?96% chance396464 comments254254 forecasters96%chance