14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
559 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
09 May 2027
11 comments
35 forecasters
Will any 100% AI-generated legislation be passed in the U.S. before 2040?
33%chance
26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
622 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Oct 2033