Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
70%chance
15% this week
13 comments
131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
7 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 344.8%
0 or 139.9%
4 or 511.2%
11 comments
138 forecasters
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
91%chance
3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
25 comments
1.3k forecasters
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
10%chance
5% this week
631 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Key Factors
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
70.6%