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Artificial Intelligence
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3
comments
63
forecasters
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
50%
chance
22%
this week
566
comments
1.7k
forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
18 Nov 2027
Key Factors
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
8
comments
35
forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
7
comments
34
forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
42.6%
2 or 3
41.8%
4 or 5
10.6%
3 others
5%
Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence
10
0
comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
46
comments
199
forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?
result
Yes
14
comments
63
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
20%
Amazon
5%
Microsoft
4%
14 others
36
comments
65
forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%
chance
Key Factors
Agentic capability timeline
Human-AI collaboration trends
Economic model viability
3
comments
79
forecasters
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
50%
chance
10%
this week
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
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