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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
3 comments
63 forecasters

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

50%chance
22% this week
566 comments
1.7k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
18 Nov 2027

Key Factors

8 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

7 comments
34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 142.6%
2 or 341.8%
4 or 510.6%

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
0 comments
AI Progress Essay Contest
46 comments
199 forecasters

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

resultYes
14 comments
63 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%
36 comments
65 forecasters

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

13%chance

Key Factors

3 comments
79 forecasters

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

50%chance
10% this week

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments