97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
567 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
20 Nov 2027
Key Factors
3 comments
51 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
631 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
13 comments
130 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
7 comments
34 forecasters
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
2 or 344.8%
0 or 139.9%
4 or 511.2%
14 comments
64 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%
25 comments
1.3k forecasters
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
11%chance
4% this week