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US Democracy Index

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Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

0 comments

32 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH29%

Google Cloud20%

Microsoft Azure14%

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

2 comments

11 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

62.8%chance

2 comments

40 forecasters

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH25%

Amazon Web Services5%

Microsoft Azure5%

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

0 comments

9 comments

40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

3 comments

61 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet34.6%

OpenAI21.2%

Anthropic18.2%

15 comments

22 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

Current estimate

57.1%

8 comments

35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

7 comments

34 forecasters

Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?

0 or 142.6%

2 or 341.8%

4 or 510.6%