4 comments
3 forecasters
How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?
Current estimate
2.28%
3 comments
6 forecasters
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?
21%chance
14% this week
Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
4 comments
13 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
70%chance
15% this week
0 comments
33 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Microsoft Azure13%
11 comments
19 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
18 Jun 2026
Key Factors
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
3 comments
2 forecasters
Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?
60%chance
10% this week
16 comments
24 forecasters
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
Current estimate
49.3%
632 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Key Factors