0 comments
32 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH30%
Google Cloud12%
Amazon Web Services11%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
13 comments
131 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
97 comments
184 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Current estimate
Mar 2032
631 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Key Factors
19 comments
80 forecasters
When will a top celebrity musician accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style?
3 comments
61 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet34.6%
OpenAI21.2%
Anthropic18.2%
6 comments
20 forecasters
What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?
Current estimate
2.12%