Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.
4 comments
13 forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
70%chance
15% this week
0 comments
33 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH30%
Google Cloud16%
Microsoft Azure13%
2 comments
40 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Microsoft Azure5%
Amazon Web Services5%
632 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Key Factors
13 comments
132 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
95%chance
11 comments
138 forecasters
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
91%chance
19 comments
80 forecasters
When will a top celebrity musician accuse AI of unfairly mimicking their style?
6 comments
20 forecasters
What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?
Current estimate
2.12%
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
3 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
71%