3 comments
58 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet32.7%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic18%
630 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
1 comment
9 forecasters
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Current estimate
82.6%
36 comments
65 forecasters
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%chance
3.3% this week
19 comments
20 forecasters
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
Current estimate
Oct 2035
0 comments
31 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH29%
Google Cloud14.2%
Microsoft Azure14%
2 comments
39 forecasters
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH25%
Amazon Web Services5%
Microsoft Azure5%
0 comments
16 forecasters
When will the fraction of English books that mention "Deep Learning" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?
Current estimate
Mar 2031