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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
16
6
6
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
14
forecasters
Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?
5
comments
68
forecasters
Which party will win the Virginia gubernatorial election of 2025?
Democrats (Spanberger)
96.4%
Republicans (Earl-Sears)
3.5%
Other
0.1%
1
comment
12
forecasters
Who will get the most votes in the first round of the November 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Jeannette Jara
62%
José Antonio Kast
27%
Evelyn Matthei
5%
5 others
0
comments
14
forecasters
Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?
0
comments
50
forecasters
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
38
comments
64
forecasters
What percent of the popular vote will be won by these parties in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
result:
48.3242
Republican
result:
49.79607
Green
result:
0.555306
3 others
0
comments
11
forecasters
In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?
13
comments
11
forecasters
How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election?
ANO 2011
result:
80
seats
Civic Democratic Party (ODS)
result:
27
seats
Mayors and Independents (STAN)
result:
22
seats
8 others
2
comments
45
forecasters
Which group will win the most seats in the 2025 Czech parliamentary election?
ANO
result:
Yes
Spolu
17.8%
Other
4.6%
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