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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

14
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U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
4 forecasters

Will a U.S. state legislative or congressional map be used for the following general elections with a total population deviation between districts of ≥12%?

2 comments
14 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

1 comment
2 forecasters

What share of the popular vote will each party receive in the next South African general election (2029)?

African National Congress (ANC)80.1
Democratic Alliance (DA)24.6
Mkonto weSizwe (MK)22.2
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7 forecasters

Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?

0 comments
5 forecasters

Will three or more competitive Senate or governor races hold no general election debates in the following years?

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6 forecasters

Will a U.S. federal or state court prevent certification of any statewide election result in the following years because of fraud?

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5 forecasters

In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?

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6 forecasters

Will two or more losing major-party candidates for governor or U.S. Senator in competitive races refuse to concede defeat in the following general elections?

2 comments
54 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

30%chance
5% this week