Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 weeks

8 comments

143 forecasters

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%chance

7 comments

194 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

1%chance

52 comments

282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

3 comments

18 forecasters

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

34%chance

condition

5 forecasters

condition

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

1 forecaster

if yes

if no

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Oct 2060

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Feb 2053

4 4 comments

1 forecaster

1 comment

61 forecasters

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

0.1%chance

condition

2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

63.8

2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

7.03

0 comments

5 forecasters

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action

1 1 comment

Space Technology & Climate

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?

2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?

Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

First Year of Global Temperature Above 2˚C?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?

2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

2100 Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action