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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
2 comments
47 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

14%chance
6% this week

AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models

0 comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
12 comments
63 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
5 comments
36 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance
5% this week
21 comments
48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes
7 comments
33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States30%
Poland30%
Lithuania29%
3 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

India50%
Israel30%
Russia9%
21 comments
73 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Taiwan1%
Saudi ArabiaAnnulled
condition

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?

46 forecasters
if yes
if no

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

20%
20%

Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

2%
2%
4
33 comments
46
46 forecasters
3 comments
94 forecasters

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

3%chance