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US Democracy Index

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Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

31%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

26%

1 1 comment

5 forecasters

21 comments

74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%

Saudi Arabia2%

Poland1%

12 comments

32 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam87%

Singaporeresult: Yes

Taiwan68%

9 comments

112 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

5 comments

86 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance

Key Factors

10 comments

14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

5 comments

37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors

21 comments

48 forecasters

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

resultYes

43 comments

66 forecasters

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

United States55%

China35%

Israel10%

15 comments

282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance