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condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
5
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
38%
38%
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
28%
28%
1
1
comment
5
5
forecasters
9
comments
111
forecasters
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
50%
Saudi Arabia
15%
South Korea
10%
7 others
21
comments
74
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Poland
1%
6 others
5
comments
79
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
4%
chance
3%
this week
Key Factors
German stance
Fractured parliament and weak government in France
U.S. nuclear umbrella uncertainty
12
comments
31
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
85%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
70%
9 others
15
comments
282
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
29%
chance
10
comments
14
forecasters
When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?
00
7
comments
33
forecasters
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
Lithuania
30%
Poland
30%
United States
30%
9 others
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
0
comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
5
comments
37
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%
chance
Key Factors
Russian drones violated Polish airspace
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