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2
comments
47
forecasters
Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?
14%
chance
6%
this week
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
0
comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
12
comments
63
forecasters
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Vietnam
85%
Singapore
result:
Yes
Taiwan
70%
9 others
5
comments
36
forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30%
chance
5%
this week
21
comments
48
forecasters
Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?
result
Yes
7
comments
33
forecasters
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
30%
Poland
30%
Lithuania
29%
9 others
3
comments
35
forecasters
Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?
India
50%
Israel
30%
Russia
9%
21
comments
73
forecasters
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Taiwan
1%
Saudi Arabia
Annulled
6 others
condition
NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?
46
forecasters
if yes
if no
Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?
20%
20%
Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?
2%
2%
4
3
3
comments
46
46
forecasters
3
comments
94
forecasters
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
3%
chance
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