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condition

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

38%
38%

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?

28%
28%
11 comment
5
5 forecasters
9 comments
111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran50%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
21 comments
74 forecasters

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea3%
Saudi Arabia2%
Poland1%
5 comments
79 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

4%chance
3% this week

Key Factors

12 comments
31 forecasters

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Vietnam85%
Singaporeresult: Yes
Taiwan70%
15 comments
282 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29%chance
10 comments
14 forecasters

When will the following countries no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war?

00
7 comments
33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Lithuania30%
Poland30%
United States30%

AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models

0 comments
AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models
5 comments
37 forecasters

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30%chance

Key Factors